Department of Psychology.
Law and Psychiatry Program.
Law Hum Behav. 2019 Oct;43(5):397-420. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000344. Epub 2019 Aug 15.
Many agencies use risk assessment instruments to guide decisions about pretrial detention, postconviction incarceration, and release from custody. Although some policymakers believe that these tools might reduce overincarceration and recidivism rates, others are concerned that they may exacerbate racial and ethnic disparities in placements. The objective of this systematic review was to test these assertions.
It was hypothesized that the adoption of tools might slightly decrease incarceration rates, and that impact on disparities might vary by tool and context.
Published and unpublished studies were identified by searching 13 databases, reviewing reference lists, and contacting experts. In total, 22 studies met inclusion criteria; these studies included 1,444,499 adolescents and adults who were accused or convicted of a crime. Each study was coded by 2 independent raters using a data extraction form and a risk of bias tool. Results were aggregated using both a narrative approach and meta-analyses.
The adoption of tools was associated with (a) small overall decreases in restrictive placements (aggregated odds ratio [] = 0.63, < .001), particularly for individuals who were low risk and (b) small reductions in any recidivism ( = 0.85, = .020). However, after removing studies with a high risk of bias, the results were no longer significant.
Although risk assessment tools might help to reduce restrictive placements, the strength of this evidence is low. Furthermore, because of a lack of research, it is unclear how tools impact racial and ethnic disparities in placements. As such, future research is needed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
许多机构使用风险评估工具来指导关于审前拘留、定罪后监禁和从羁押中释放的决策。尽管一些政策制定者认为这些工具可能会降低过度监禁和累犯率，但另一些人则担心它们可能会加剧种族和族裔在安置方面的差异。本系统评价的目的是检验这些说法。
假设采用这些工具可能会略微降低监禁率，而对差异的影响可能因工具和背景而异。
通过搜索 13 个数据库、审查参考文献和联系专家，确定了已发表和未发表的研究。共有 22 项研究符合纳入标准；这些研究包括 1444499 名被指控或被判犯罪的青少年和成年人。每项研究都由 2 名独立评估员使用数据提取表和风险偏倚工具进行编码。结果使用叙述性方法和荟萃分析进行汇总。
采用工具与（a）总体上减少限制安置（综合优势比[]=0.63，<.001）相关，特别是对于低风险的个体，以及（b）任何累犯率（=0.85，=.020）的降低有关。然而，在去除高偏倚风险的研究后，结果不再显著。
尽管风险评估工具可能有助于减少限制安置，但这方面的证据力度较低。此外，由于缺乏研究，尚不清楚这些工具如何影响种族和族裔在安置方面的差异。因此，需要进一步的研究。（PsycINFO 数据库记录（c）2019 APA，保留所有权利）。
