SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology, and Environmental Technology , University of Southern Denmark , 5230 Odense , Denmark.
Centre for Minerals and Materials (MiMa) , Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) , 1350 Copenhagen , Denmark.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 Oct 1;53(19):11313-11322. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b03765. Epub 2019 Sep 15.
Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark's ambitious transition toward 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.
风能是应对全球气候挑战的关键，但它的发展受到有限的初级材料的潜在限制。先前关于风力发电发展的材料需求预测的研究通常仅限于少数几种材料，且技术分辨率较低，因此难以全面了解微工程参数对风能资源的影响。在本研究中，我们开发了一种基于组件和存量的前瞻性物质流分析模型，并使用有关工程参数和风力发电能力的底层数据，对丹麦的风能发展的材料需求和二次供应潜力进行了特征描述。丹麦是风能开发的先驱和领先国家。我们还通过统计估计和敏感性分析方法，明确解决了前瞻性建模中的不确定性问题。我们的研究结果表明，在未来几十年，丹麦雄心勃勃地向 100%可再生能源过渡，这对材料供应和报废管理提出了越来越大的挑战。利用报废时的潜在二次资源供应并延长使用寿命，可以减少对初级材料的需求，但不能完全缓解材料供应风险。这种考虑了更精确的底层工程参数的模型框架可以应用于其他新兴技术，并有助于揭示未来可再生能源和气候转型中相关资源、能源和气候战略的协同作用和权衡。
