Santiago Mafalda, Magro Fernando, Correia Luís, Portela Francisco, Ministro Paula, Lago Paula, Dias Cláudia Camila
CINTESIS - Center for Health Technology and Services Research, Porto, Portugal.
Grupo de Estudo da Doença Inflamatória Intestinal (GEDII), Porto, Portugal.
Therap Adv Gastroenterol. 2019 Aug 21;12:1756284819860044. doi: 10.1177/1756284819860044. eCollection 2019.
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasingly prevalent within western societies. Its complex and chronic facets in addition to its increasing prevalence place a great economic burden on our healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the national prevalence of IBD through predictive models. We used prevalence data which spans the years 2003-2007 to estimate prevalence until 2030 by means of four forecasting methods. Prevalence rates are estimated to be 4-6-times higher in 2030 when compared with 2003 with an average annual percent change of 5%. IBD is poised to have a substantial impact on healthcare systems in the near future, given its rapidly increasing prevalence. Forecasting methods will allow for a proactive stance on the development of health policies that will be needed to provide high quality and cost-effective care to these patients, while ensuring the economic viability of healthcare systems.
炎症性肠病（IBD）在西方社会日益普遍。其复杂且慢性的特点以及不断上升的患病率给我们的医疗系统带来了巨大的经济负担。我们的目标是通过预测模型估算IBD在全国的患病率。我们利用了2003年至2007年期间的患病率数据，通过四种预测方法来估算到2030年的患病率。与2003年相比，预计2030年的患病率将高出4至6倍，年均变化率为5%。鉴于IBD患病率迅速上升，它在不久的将来可能会对医疗系统产生重大影响。预测方法将使我们能够对制定卫生政策采取积极主动的态度，这些政策对于为这些患者提供高质量且具成本效益的护理，同时确保医疗系统的经济可行性而言是必要的。
