Tareen Aleem Dad Khan, Nadeem Malik Sajjad Ahmed, Kearfott Kimberlee Jane, Abbas Kamran, Khawaja Muhammad Asim, Rafique Muhammad
Department of Physics University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarbad, 13100, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan.
Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, 13100, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan.
Appl Radiat Isot. 2019 Dec;154:108861. doi: 10.1016/j.apradiso.2019.108861. Epub 2019 Aug 22.
Correlation of radon anomalies with meteorological parameters and earthquake occurrence has been reported in many studies. This paper reports descriptive statistical analysis and boxplot contingent earthquake prediction based upon soil radon time series data. Data has been collected over a fault line, passing beneath the Muzaffarabad, for the period of one year. Soil radon gas (SRG) was measured using RTM 1688-2 radiometric instrument (made by SARAD GmbH). The range of radon in soil was found to be 14349 Bqm, whereas the ranges of temperature, pressure and relative humidity were found as 38.50 C, 29 mbar and 67% respectively. SRG data shows that time series follows normal distribution. Values of coefficient of variation (CV) indicate the consistency of the recorded values of radon in soil and metrological parameters. Variance inflation factor (VIF) and Durbin Watson test (d) indicate a moderate multicollinearity and autocorrelation between variables. The analysis of radon time series using boxplots and meteorological parameters show specific patterns in radon concentrations (outliers, variant IQRs, first quartile values, and median values) due to pre-earthquake underground seismic activities. On the basis of these patterns earthquake may be more early predicted without using complicated predictive systems. Boxplots also predicted that there is no significant pattern found in dispersion of meteorological factors measured in this study. To the best of our knowledge this is first ever attempt to predict earthquake using boxplot explanation.
许多研究报告了氡异常与气象参数及地震发生之间的相关性。本文报告了基于土壤氡时间序列数据的描述性统计分析和箱线图 contingent 地震预测。在一条穿过穆扎法拉巴德下方的断层线上收集了一年的数据。使用 RTM 1688 - 2 辐射测量仪（由 SARAD GmbH 制造）测量土壤氡气（SRG）。发现土壤中氡的范围为 14349 Bqm，而温度、压力和相对湿度的范围分别为 38.50℃、29 毫巴和 67%。SRG 数据表明时间序列呈正态分布。变异系数（CV）值表明土壤中氡和气象参数记录值的一致性。方差膨胀因子（VIF）和德宾 - 沃森检验（d）表明变量之间存在中度多重共线性和自相关性。使用箱线图和气象参数对氡时间序列的分析表明，由于震前地下地震活动，氡浓度存在特定模式（异常值、变异四分位距、第一四分位数和中位数）。基于这些模式，无需使用复杂的预测系统就可以更早地预测地震。箱线图还预测，在本研究中测量的气象因素的离散度中未发现显著模式。据我们所知，这是首次尝试使用箱线图解释来预测地震。
