SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology, and Environmental Technology , University of Southern Denmark , 5230 Odense , Denmark.
Umicore Precious Metals Refining , B-2660 Hoboken , Belgium.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 Oct 1;53(19):11541-11551. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b01912. Epub 2019 Sep 13.
Platinum, as a key catalytic material, is important for the global green transition due both to its current main use in autocatalysts and its increasing use in emerging and renewable energy technologies such as fuel cells and electrolyzers. In this study, we developed a dynamic material flow analysis model to characterize the global platinum cycle between 1975 and 2016 and to develop scenarios for future global platinum demand to 2050. Our results show that the autocatalyst and jewelry uses represent the most primary platinum use and possess the highest platinum stocks in use by 2016; however, when closed loop recycling is considered, the gross platinum demand from the glass industry would be the largest. Many socioeconomic (e.g., population and car ownership) and technological (e.g., engine and energy technologies) factors will affect the future demand for platinum in a global green transition. Our analysis concludes that, only in high demand scenarios and when fuel cell market penetration is high compared to the expected, the aggregate demand to 2050 will exceed the 2016 global platinum reserves. Improving the end of life collection and recycling rates would be important to address potential future supply risks due to geopolitical reasons. These demand scenarios and further mapping of the global platinum value chain can help inform government and industry policies on transportation and energy transition, platinum supply risk mitigation, and recycling capacity planning and technology development.
铂作为一种关键的催化材料，由于其当前在汽车催化剂中的主要用途以及在燃料电池和电解槽等新兴和可再生能源技术中的日益增加的用途，对于全球绿色转型至关重要。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个动态物质流分析模型，以描述 1975 年至 2016 年间全球铂循环，并为 2050 年前全球铂需求情景提供了方案。我们的研究结果表明，汽车催化剂和珠宝用途代表了最主要的铂用途，并在 2016 年拥有最高的在用铂存量；然而，当考虑闭环回收时，玻璃行业的总铂需求将是最大的。许多社会经济（例如，人口和汽车保有量）和技术（例如，发动机和能源技术）因素将影响全球绿色转型中对铂的未来需求。我们的分析得出结论，只有在高需求情景下，并且当燃料电池市场渗透率相对于预期较高时，到 2050 年的总需求才会超过 2016 年的全球铂储量。提高报废收集和回收利用率对于解决由于地缘政治原因导致的潜在未来供应风险非常重要。这些需求情景以及对全球铂价值链的进一步映射可以帮助为交通和能源转型、铂供应风险缓解以及回收能力规划和技术发展提供政府和行业政策的信息。
