State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing100084, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Feb 14;57(6):2611-2624. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c07169. Epub 2023 Feb 3.
Indium has emerged as a strategic metal for high-tech and renewable industries, being catalogued as a critical material to foster a greener future. Nevertheless, its global sustainability is not well addressed. Here, using dynamic substance flow analysis, we study the indium industry evolution between 2010 and 2020 and estimate its future demand in the medium and long term toward 2050 to identify potential paths and mechanisms to decrease indium losses and to identify the key stages in its life cycle. As electronics and photovoltaic industries will play a crucial role in the indium demand, we assess their indium demand employing three cumulative photovoltaic capacity scenarios (8.5, 14, and 60 TW by 2050) with different dominant photovoltaic sub-technologies. Results show that liquid-crystal displays and photovoltaic panels will drive indium future demand, increasing its current demand by 2.2-4.2, 2.6-7.0, and 6.8-38.3 times for the 8.5, 14, and 60 TW scenarios, respectively, threatening with shortages that could occur as early as the next decade. Therefore, measures to reduce losses in primary production, innovations and improvements in electronics and solar panels, and indium recycling with an effective circular economy strategy could promote and secure the future sustainability of indium.
铟已成为高科技和可再生产业的战略金属，被列为促进绿色未来的关键材料。然而，其全球可持续性尚未得到充分解决。在这里，我们使用动态物质流分析，研究了 2010 年至 2020 年期间铟产业的演变，并估计了其在中长期（到 2050 年）的未来需求，以确定减少铟损失的潜在途径和机制，并确定其生命周期中的关键阶段。由于电子和光伏产业将在铟需求中发挥关键作用，我们采用三种累计光伏容量情景（2050 年分别为 8.5、14 和 60 TW）评估其铟需求，其中包含不同主导的光伏子技术。结果表明，液晶显示器和光伏电池板将推动铟的未来需求，使当前需求分别增加 2.2-4.2、2.6-7.0 和 6.8-38.3 倍，分别适用于 8.5、14 和 60 TW 情景，这可能导致未来十年内出现短缺。因此，采取措施减少初级生产中的损失、电子和太阳能电池板的创新和改进，以及采用有效的循环经济战略进行铟回收，可以促进和确保铟的未来可持续性。
