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巴西联邦公路交通事故受害者数量在道路安全行动十年前后的变化趋势。

Trends in the number of traffic accident victims on Brazil's federal highways before and after the start of the Decade of Action for Road Safety.

机构信息

Faculdade de Ceilândia, Universidade de Brasília, Ceilândia, Brasil.

Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.

出版信息

Cad Saude Publica. 2019 Aug 29;35(8):e00250218. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00250218.

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the trend in the number of fatalities, severe injuries, and minor injuries from traffic accidents on Brazil's federal highways according to the country's major geographic regions before and after the start of the Decade of Action for Road Safety (DARS). This was an interrupted time series study of data on accidents with fatal or injured victims provided by the Brazilian Federal Highway Police from 2007 to 2017. The Prais-Winsten method was used to calculate the monthly percentage change (MPC) in the number of fatalities, severe injuries, and minor injuries. Before the DARS, there was an upward monthly trend in the number of fatalities in these accidents in the country as a whole (MPC 0.71%) and in all five regions, especially in the South (MPC 1.01%) and Central-West (MPC 0.84%). There was an inverse trend after the start of the DARS, with a significant decrease in Brazil as a whole (MPC -1.24%) and in the major geographic regions. For each person that dies in an accident on a federal highway, at least 12 others suffer non-fatal injuries. There was an upward trend in the number of victims with severe injuries (MPC 0.53%) and minor injuries (MPC 0.8%) in Brazil and in the major geographic regions in the period prior to the DARS. After the start of the DARS, there was a significant downward trend in the absolute frequencies of these outcomes at the national and regional levels. In conclusion, before the DARS, there was an upward monthly trend in the number of fatal and injured victims of traffic accidents on Brazil's federal highways. After the start of the DARS, in 2011, there was an inverse trend, namely a decline in these outcomes in the country.

摘要

本研究旨在分析 2007 年至 2017 年巴西联邦公路警察提供的致命或受伤事故数据,根据该国主要地理区域,分析道路安全行动十年(DARS)前后巴西联邦公路上交通事故死亡人数、重伤人数和轻伤人数的变化趋势。这是一项关于事故死亡或受伤受害者数据的中断时间序列研究。采用 Prais-Winsten 法计算致命、重伤和轻伤人数的月百分比变化(MPC)。在 DARS 之前,全国范围内(MPC0.71%)和所有五个地区(特别是南部地区和中西部地区)交通事故死亡人数呈逐月上升趋势(MPC1.01%和 MPC0.84%)。DARS 启动后呈反向趋势,巴西整体(MPC-1.24%)和主要地理区域均呈显著下降趋势。在联邦公路上发生事故导致死亡的每 1 人,至少有 12 人遭受非致命伤害。在 DARS 之前,巴西和主要地理区域重伤(MPC0.53%)和轻伤(MPC0.8%)受害者人数呈上升趋势。DARS 启动后,全国和区域层面这些结果的绝对频率呈显著下降趋势。总之,在 DARS 之前,巴西联邦公路上交通事故死亡和受伤人数呈逐月上升趋势。在 DARS 开始后,即 2011 年,出现了相反的趋势,即全国范围内这些结果有所下降。

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