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[利用地理探测器数据探讨中国西南部部分地区细菌性痢疾发病率的影响因素]

[Factors influencing the incidence of bacterial dysentery in parts of southwest China, using data from the geodetector].

作者信息

Wang X F, Zhang Y W, Ma J J

机构信息

Information Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2019 Aug 10;40(8):953-959. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.08.015.

Abstract

To analyze the relationship between the incidence of bacterial dysentery and related meteorological, environmental and socio-economic factors in parts of southwest China, under the geodetector. Incidence data on bacillary dysentery from 2005 to 2014 was collected from the China infectious disease reporting system and meteorological, terrain environment and socio-economic related data were used for statistical analysis with geodetector also used, in Sichuan province, Yunnan province and the Tibet autonomous region (southwest China). Through geodetector model, results showed that the elevation maximum value of power of determinant () (=0.308), ethnicity (=0.260), followed by summer mean temperature, topography, elevation standard deviation, slope, population density were noticed. The maximum value of of summer average relative humidity, summer average precipitation, and regional GDP were all less than 0.200. In the ecological detector model, value of appeared significantly different from multiple factors such as summer average precipitation, regional GDP, average altitude, elevation standard deviation, slope, terrain and ethnicity (<0.05). In the interactive detector model, after the spatial interaction, factors as: value on of summer average relative humidity, population density and regional GDP were larger than the value on the sum of of two factors with nonlinear superposition enhancing trend. Results from the risk zone detection showed that areas of moderate average summer temperature, low average precipitation, moderate average summer relative humidity, high average altitude, large elevation standard deviation, high slope, mountain topography, Tibeto-Burmese of ethnicity, low population density, low regional GDP were all related to the high incidence rates of bacterial dysentery. Meteorological conditions and topography environments were related to the bacterial dysentery in southwest China, socio-economic behaviors depends on the level of economic development and sanitary conditions . were all directing influencing the transmission and incidence of bacterial dysentery. For developing a better intervention programs on bacillary dysentery, socio-economic means should be used for the control of bacillary dysentery, in the region.

摘要

为分析中国西南部部分地区细菌性痢疾发病率与相关气象、环境及社会经济因素之间的关系,在地理探测器的支持下,收集了2005年至2014年来自中国传染病报告系统的细菌性痢疾发病数据,并运用地理探测器对四川省、云南省和西藏自治区(中国西南部)的气象、地形环境及社会经济相关数据进行统计分析。通过地理探测器模型,结果显示,决定系数()的最大值为海拔(=0.308)、民族(=0.260),其次是夏季平均气温、地形、海拔标准差、坡度、人口密度。夏季平均相对湿度、夏季平均降水量和地区生产总值的最大值均小于0.200。在生态探测器模型中,值在夏季平均降水量、地区生产总值、平均海拔、海拔标准差、坡度、地形和民族等多个因素上存在显著差异(<0.05)。在交互探测器模型中,经过空间交互后,夏季平均相对湿度、人口密度和地区生产总值的 值大于两个因素之和的 值,呈现非线性叠加增强趋势。风险区检测结果表明,夏季平均气温适中、平均降水量低、夏季平均相对湿度适中、平均海拔高、海拔标准差大、坡度高、山地地形、藏缅民族、人口密度低、地区生产总值低的地区均与细菌性痢疾的高发病率相关。气象条件和地形环境与中国西南部的细菌性痢疾有关,社会经济行为取决于经济发展水平和卫生条件,均直接影响细菌性痢疾的传播和发病。为制定更好的细菌性痢疾干预方案,应采用社会经济手段控制该地区的细菌性痢疾。

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