School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo, China.
College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2019 Sep 6;14(9):e0221872. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221872. eCollection 2019.
The primary objective of this study is to compare pedestrian evacuation strategies in the large-scale public space (LPS) using microscopic model. Data were collected by video recording from Tian-yi square for 36 hours in city of Ningbo, China. A pedestrian evacuation simulation model was developed based on the social force model (SFM). The simulation model parameters, such as reaction time, elasticity coefficient, sliding coefficient, et al, were calibrated using the real data extracted from the video. Five evacuation strategies, strategy 1 (S1) to strategy 5 (S5) involving distance, density and capacity factors were simulated and compared by indicators of evacuation time and channel utilization rate, as well as the evacuation efficiency. The simulation model parameters calibration results showed that a) the pedestrians walking speed is 1.0 ~ 1.5m/s; b) the pedestrians walking diameter is 0.3 ~ 0.4m; c) the frequency of pedestrian arrival and departure followed multi-normal distribution. The simulation results showed that, (a) in terms of total evacuation time, the performance of S4 and S5 which considering the capacity and density factors were best in all evacuation scenarios, the performance of S3 which only considering the density factor was the worst, relatively, and S1 and S2 which considering the distance factor were in the middle. (b) the utilization rate of channels under S5 strategy was better than other strategies, which performs best in the balance of evacuation. S3 strategy was the worst, and S1, S2 and S4 were in the middle. (c) in terms of the evacuation efficiency, when the number of evacuees is within 2, 500 peds, the S1 and S2 strategy which considering the distance factor have best evacuation efficiency than other strategies. And when the number of evacuees is above 2, 500 peds, the S4 and S5 strategy which considering the capacity factor are better than others.
本研究的主要目的是使用微观模型比较大规模公共空间（LPS）中的行人疏散策略。数据通过在中国宁波市的天一广场进行 36 小时的视频记录收集。基于社会力模型（SFM）开发了行人疏散模拟模型。使用从视频中提取的真实数据对模拟模型参数（例如反应时间、弹性系数、滑动系数等）进行了校准。模拟并比较了涉及距离、密度和容量因素的五种疏散策略 S1 到 S5，通过疏散时间和通道利用率以及疏散效率等指标进行比较。模拟模型参数校准结果表明：a）行人步行速度为 1.0 至 1.5m/s；b）行人步行直径为 0.3 至 0.4m；c）行人到达和离开的频率遵循多正态分布。模拟结果表明：a）在总疏散时间方面，考虑容量和密度因素的 S4 和 S5 策略在所有疏散场景中的性能最佳，仅考虑密度因素的 S3 策略的性能最差，而考虑距离因素的 S1 和 S2 策略则居中。b）S5 策略下的通道利用率更好，在疏散平衡方面表现最佳。S3 策略最差，而 S1、S2 和 S4 策略则居中。c）就疏散效率而言，当疏散人数在 2500 人以内时，考虑距离因素的 S1 和 S2 策略的疏散效率优于其他策略。而当疏散人数超过 2500 人时，考虑容量因素的 S4 和 S5 策略则优于其他策略。
