Department of Sociology and Criminology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania.
Human Development and Family Studies, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2019 Jul;80(4):472-479. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2019.80.472.
Proximal changes in externalizing behaviors before and after children and early adolescents have their first alcoholic drink and first heavy drinking episode are examined using intergenerational, prospective data from the ongoing U.K. national Millennium Cohort Study (10,529 child-parent pairs followed over 35,406 occasions).
We examined how within-person changes in externalizing behaviors (based on parental reports on the Strengths and Difficulties scale when children were modal ages 5, 7, 11, and 14 years) follow children's age at first alcoholic drink (AFD) and age at first heavy drinking (AFHD), based on confidential child self-reports at ages 11 and 14 years. Analyses controlled for child age, time-varying parent-level confounders (parental education and alcohol abstention), and time-stable selection factors.
Estimates from fixed-effects Poisson models revealed a 5% increase in the expected count of externalizing behaviors after children have their first alcoholic drink (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.05, 95% CI [1.03, 1.07]), and a 13% increase after first drinking heavily (IRR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.09, 1.18]), independent of key time-varying and all time-stable individual differences.
Early AFHD and unobserved time-stable selection factors partially explain relationships between early drinking and problem behaviors, but early AFD continues to be a significant predictor of externalizing behavior. Although prevention efforts should continue to discourage heavy drinking in childhood and early adolescence, the results suggest that both AFHD and AFD should be delayed.
利用正在进行的英国国家千年队列研究(对 10529 对儿童-父母对,随访超过 35406 次)的代际前瞻性数据,检查儿童和青少年首次饮酒和首次重度饮酒前后外化行为的近端变化。
我们根据儿童在模态年龄 5、7、11 和 14 岁时父母报告的“长处与困难量表”(Strengths and Difficulties Scale),检查了外化行为(基于儿童自我报告)的个体内变化如何随儿童首次饮酒(AFD)和首次重度饮酒(AFHD)的年龄而变化。分析控制了儿童年龄、随时间变化的父母水平混杂因素(父母教育和戒酒)和时间稳定的选择因素。
固定效应泊松模型的估计结果显示,儿童首次饮酒后,预计外化行为的数量增加了 5%(发生率比 [IRR] = 1.05,95%置信区间 [1.03, 1.07]),首次大量饮酒后增加了 13%(IRR = 1.13,95% CI [1.09, 1.18]),独立于关键的随时间变化和所有时间稳定的个体差异。
早期的 AFHD 和未观察到的时间稳定的选择因素部分解释了早期饮酒与问题行为之间的关系,但早期的 AFD 仍然是外化行为的重要预测因素。尽管预防工作应继续劝阻儿童和青少年重度饮酒,但结果表明,AFHD 和 AFD 都应推迟。