无症状感染对流感大流行期间口罩有效性的影响。
Influence of asymptomatic infections for the effectiveness of facemasks during pandemic influenza.
机构信息
School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, P.R. China.
Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA.
出版信息
Math Biosci Eng. 2019 May 6;16(5):3936-3946. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019194.
In this paper, the SEIR model is generalized by introducing an asymptomatic class to quantify the influence of wearing N95 facemasks in reducing the spread of influenza H1N1. What's more, we explain the control reproduction number R according to the biological meaning reasonably. Without any intervention, the basic reproduction number R=1.83 and there will be a large outbreak of infectious diseases. If N95 facemasks are 50% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, 50% of population wear them on the first day, the basic reproduction number will be decreased from 1.83 to 1.17 and the final size reduced from 73% to 2%.
在本文中，通过引入无症状类别，将 SEIR 模型推广，以量化佩戴 N95 口罩对减少甲型 H1N1 流感传播的影响。此外，我们根据生物学意义合理地解释了控制繁殖数 R。在没有任何干预的情况下，基本繁殖数 R=1.83，将爆发大规模传染病。如果 N95 口罩能有效降低 50%的易感性和传染性，50%的人口在第一天戴上口罩，基本繁殖数将从 1.83 下降到 1.17，最终规模将从 73%下降到 2%。
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