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[阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯市的热浪死亡率(2005 - 2015年)]

[Mortality from heat waves in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina (2005-2015)].

作者信息

Chesini Francisco, Abrutzky Rosana, Titto Ernesto de

机构信息

Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

出版信息

Cad Saude Publica. 2019 Sep 9;35(9):e00165218. doi: 10.1590/0102-311X00165218.

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze mortality during heat waves in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 2005-2015. We used a time series design with generalized additive models, linking mortality to days of heat waves throughout the period, and to days of the heat wave in 2013, the longest wave since 1906, controlling for time variables, mean temperature, and humidity. Risk of death from natural causes increased by 14% (RR = 1.140; 95%CI: 1.108-1.173) during heat waves when compared to the other days in the hot season. The increase occurred in both sexes and in all age groups, and individuals under 15 years of age were more affected (RR = 1.167; 95%CI: 1.019-1.335) as were those over 84 years (RR = 1.201; 95%CI: 1.098-1.313). The heat wave in December 2013 showed an increase of 43% (RR = 1.428; 95%CI: 1.399-1.457) in total daily deaths, increasing to 51% in individuals over 84 years (RR = 1.515; 95%CI: 1.372-1.674) and 65% (RR = 1.647; 95%CI: 1.367-1.986) for renal causes. We conclude that heat waves pose a significant risk of death, differing according to sex and age in the population of Buenos Aires.

摘要

本研究旨在分析2005 - 2015年期间阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯市热浪期间的死亡率。我们采用了广义相加模型的时间序列设计,将死亡率与整个时期的热浪天数以及2013年(自1906年以来最长的热浪)的热浪天数相关联,并控制时间变量、平均温度和湿度。与炎热季节的其他日子相比,热浪期间自然原因导致的死亡风险增加了14%(相对危险度RR = 1.140;95%置信区间:1.108 - 1.173)。这种增加在男女以及所有年龄组中都有发生,15岁以下的个体受影响更大(RR = 1.167;95%置信区间:1.019 - 1.335),84岁以上的个体也是如此(RR = 1.201;95%置信区间:1.098 - 1.313)。2013年12月的热浪显示每日总死亡人数增加了43%(RR = 1.428;95%置信区间:1.399 - 1.457),84岁以上个体的死亡人数增加到51%(RR = 1.5

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