SMHI, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden.
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark.
Ambio. 2019 Nov;48(11):1325-1336. doi: 10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5. Epub 2019 Sep 21.
The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.
波罗的海正遭受着来自陆地向海洋排放营养物质所导致的富营养化，而这些负荷在气候变化的情况下可能会发生变化。我们表明，到本世纪中叶，气候变化的影响可能小于土地利用、农业实践、大气沉降和废水排放等不断变化的社会经济因素的直接影响。我们比较了气候变化预测下和共享社会经济途径情景下对波罗的海营养负荷的动态建模结果。预计气候变化情景会导致氮和磷的平均负荷分别增加 8%和 14%。相比之下，社会经济驱动因素的变化可能导致氮和磷的负荷分别减少 13%和 6%或增加 11%和 9%，具体取决于途径。这表明，政策决策在适应气候变化和管理波罗的海地区富营养化方面仍然发挥着重要作用。
