van Puijenbroek P J T M, Bouwman A F, Beusen A H W, Lucas P L
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands E-mail:
Water Sci Technol. 2015;71(2):227-33. doi: 10.2166/wst.2014.498.
Households are an important source of nutrient loading to surface water. Sewage systems without or with only primary wastewater treatment are major polluters of surface water. Future emission levels will depend on population growth, urbanisation, increases in income and investments in sanitation, sewage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This study presents the results for two possible shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSP1 is a scenario that includes improvement of wastewater treatment and SSP3 does not include such improvement, with fewer investments and a higher population growth. The main drivers for the nutrient emission model are population growth, income growth and urbanisation. Under the SSP1 scenario, 5.7 billion people will be connected to a sewage system and for SSP3 this is 5 billion. Nitrogen and phosphorus emissions increase by about 70% under both SSP scenarios, with the largest increase in SSP1. South Asia and Africa have the largest emission increases, in the developed countries decrease the nutrient emissions. The higher emission level poses a risk to ecosystem services.
家庭是地表水体营养物负荷的重要来源。没有污水处理或仅进行一级污水处理的污水系统是地表水的主要污染源。未来的排放水平将取决于人口增长、城市化、收入增加以及在卫生设施、污水系统和污水处理厂方面的投资。本研究展示了两种可能的共享社会经济路径（SSP）的结果。SSP1是一个包括改善污水处理的情景，而SSP3不包括这种改善，投资较少且人口增长较高。营养物排放模型的主要驱动因素是人口增长、收入增长和城市化。在SSP1情景下，57亿人将接入污水系统，而在SSP3情景下这一数字为50亿。在两种SSP情景下，氮和磷的排放量均增加约70%，其中SSP1的增幅最大。南亚和非洲的排放量增加最多，而发达国家的营养物排放量则有所下降。较高的排放水平对生态系统服务构成风险。
