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全球大气气溶胶排放变化对与 PM 相关的健康影响的作用。

Effect of global atmospheric aerosol emission change on PM-related health impacts.

机构信息

Environmental Health Sciences, Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University , Kyoto , Japan.

Environmental Health Sciences, Department of Global Ecology, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University , Kyoto , Japan.

出版信息

Glob Health Action. 2019;12(1):1664130. doi: 10.1080/16549716.2019.1664130.

Abstract

: Previous research has highlighted the importance of major atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate, through its precursor sulfur dioxide (SO), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), and their effect on global climate regimes, specifically on their impact on particulate matter measuring ≤ 2.5 μm (PM). Policy regulations have attempted to address the change in these major active aerosols and their impact on PM, which would presumably have a cascading effect toward the change of health risks. : This study aimed to determine how the change in the global emissions of anthropogenic aerosols affects health, particularly through the change in attributable mortality (AN) and years of life lost (YLL). This study also aimed to explore the importance of using AM/YLL in conveying air pollution health impact message. : The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate was used to estimate the gridded atmospheric PM by changing the emission of SO, BC, and OC. Next, the emissions were utilized to estimate the associated cause-specific risks via an integrated exposure-response function, and its consequent health indicators, AM and YLL, per country. : OC change yielded the greatest benefit for all country income groups, particularly among low-middle-income countries. Utilizing either AM or YLL did not alter the order of benefits among upper-middle and high-income countries (UMIC/HIC); however, using either health indicator to express the order of benefit varied among low- and low-middle-income countries (LIC/LMIC). : Global and country-specific mitigation efforts focusing on OC-related activities would yield substantial health benefits. Substantial aerosol emission reduction would greatly benefit high-emitting countries (i.e. China and India). Although no difference is found in the order of health outcome benefits in UMIC/HIC, caution is warranted in using either AM or YLL for health impact assessment in LIC/LMIC.

摘要

先前的研究强调了大气气溶胶(如硫酸盐、其前体二氧化硫 (SO)、黑碳 (BC) 和有机碳 (OC))的重要性,及其对全球气候系统的影响,特别是对测量值 ≤ 2.5μm 的颗粒物 (PM) 的影响。政策法规试图解决这些主要活性气溶胶的变化及其对 PM 的影响,这可能会对健康风险的变化产生级联效应。

本研究旨在确定人为气溶胶的全球排放量变化如何影响健康,特别是通过归因死亡率 (AN) 和生命损失年 (YLL) 的变化。本研究还旨在探索使用 AM/YLL 传递空气污染健康影响信息的重要性。

使用多学科气候研究模型 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) 通过改变 SO、BC 和 OC 的排放来估计网格化大气 PM。接下来,利用排放量通过综合暴露-反应函数来估计与特定原因相关的风险,以及每个国家的相应健康指标 AN 和 YLL。

OC 的变化对所有国家收入组都产生了最大的收益,特别是在中低收入国家中。无论是使用 AM 还是 YLL,都不会改变中上收入和高收入国家(UMIC/HIC)之间的受益顺序;然而,使用任何一种健康指标来表达受益顺序,在低收入和中低收入国家(LIC/LMIC)之间都有所不同。

针对 OC 相关活动的全球和国家特定缓解措施将带来显著的健康益处。大量的气溶胶减排将使高排放国家(即中国和印度)受益匪浅。尽管在 UMIC/HIC 中没有发现健康结果受益顺序的差异,但在 LIC/LMIC 中使用 AM 或 YLL 进行健康影响评估时需要谨慎。

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