Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico di Aviano, IRCCS, via Gallini 2, 33081, Aviano, PN, Italy.
Faculty of Medicine and Cancer Registry, University of Setif, Setif, Algeria.
Sci Rep. 2019 Oct 1;9(1):14111. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50680-5.
A higher frequency of early onset female breast cancers (BC) has been observed in low/middle income countries than in high income countries. We quantified the role of population ageing to this pattern using data from all population-based cancer registries (CRs) worldwide. Patients' median age at BC onset and that of the general population were extracted for CRs listed in volumes VI (1983-1987 years) through XI (2008-2012 years) of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Their association was assessed at cross-sectional level by linear regression model and longitudinally considering 25-year ageing of the population in long-standing CRs listed at the beginning and at the end of the study. During 2008-2012, each one-year increase of population ageing was associated with a nearly ½ year increase of age at BC diagnosis. Population demographics explained forty-two percent of the age variance for BC. In 1983-1987, long-standing CRs with a median age at BC below age 61.8 years showed an increase of age at BC after 25-years. Worldwide, age at BC diagnosis essentially reflected the median age of the population. Changes in BC detection methodology likely lessened this association. Nevertheless, the elevated absolute number of BCs in young populations deserves strategies of BC prevention.
与高收入国家相比,中低收入国家的早发性女性乳腺癌(BC)发病率更高。我们利用全球所有人群癌症登记处(CR)的数据,定量评估了人口老龄化对这一模式的作用。为列入《五个大陆癌症发病率》第六卷(1983-1987 年)至第十一卷(2008-2012 年)的 CR,提取了 BC 发病患者的中位年龄和一般人群的中位年龄。通过线性回归模型在横截面上评估其相关性,并在长期 CR 中考虑人群每 25 年的老龄化,这些长期 CR 列于研究开始和结束时。2008-2012 年,人口老龄化每年增加一年,BC 诊断的年龄就增加近半年。人口统计学解释了 BC 年龄差异的 42%。1983-1987 年,BC 中位年龄低于 61.8 岁的长期 CR 在 25 年后 BC 的年龄增加。在全球范围内,BC 的诊断年龄基本反映了人口的中位年龄。BC 检测方法的变化可能减轻了这种关联。然而,年轻人中绝对数量的 BC 值得采取 BC 预防策略。