Division of Ecology and Evolution, and Centre for Biodiversity Analysis, The Australian National University, 46 Sullivans Creek Road, Acton, ACT, 2601, Australia; CSIRO Environomics Future Science Platform & Australian National Herbarium, Clunies Ross St, Acton, ACT, 2601, Australia.
The Global Ecology Lab, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, South Australia, 5001, Australia.
Curr Biol. 2019 Oct 7;29(19):R996-R1007. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2019.08.028.
Understanding how natural populations will respond to rapid anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest challenges for ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Much research has focussed on whether physiological traits can evolve quickly enough under rapidly increasing temperatures. While the simple Breeder's equation helps to understand how extreme temperatures and genetic variation might drive within-population evolution under climate change, it does not consider two key areas: how different forms of phenotypic plasticity interact and variation among populations. Plasticity can modify the exposure to climatic extremes and the strength of selection from those extremes, while differences among populations provide adaptive diversity not apparent within them. Here, we focus on terrestrial vertebrates and, with a case study on a tropical lizard, demonstrate the complex interplay between spatial, genetic and plastic contributions to variation in climate-relevant physiological traits. We identify several problems that need to be better understood: which traits are under selection in a changing climate; the different forms of plasticity relevant to population persistence and rapid evolution; plastic versus genetic contributions to geographic variation in climate-associated traits and whether plasticity can be harnessed to promote persistence of species. Given ongoing uncertainties around whether natural populations can evolve rapidly enough to persist, we advocate the use of field trials aimed at increasing rates of adaptation, especially in systems known to be strongly impacted by human-driven changes in climate.
了解自然种群如何应对快速的人为气候变化是生态学家和进化生物学家面临的最大挑战之一。许多研究都集中在生理特征是否能够在快速升温的情况下足够快地进化。虽然简单的 Breeder 方程有助于理解极端温度和遗传变异如何在气候变化下驱动种群内的进化，但它没有考虑两个关键领域：不同形式的表型可塑性如何相互作用以及种群之间的变异。可塑性可以改变对气候极端情况的暴露程度以及来自这些极端情况的选择强度，而种群之间的差异提供了在种群内部不明显的适应性多样性。在这里，我们专注于陆生脊椎动物，并以热带蜥蜴为例，展示了与气候相关的生理特征的空间、遗传和可塑性贡献之间的复杂相互作用。我们确定了几个需要更好理解的问题：在不断变化的气候下，哪些特征受到选择；与种群存续和快速进化相关的不同形式的可塑性；与气候相关特征的地理变异中，可塑性和遗传的贡献，以及可塑性是否可以被利用来促进物种的存续。鉴于围绕自然种群是否能够足够快地进化以存续下去的不确定性，我们提倡使用旨在提高适应速度的现场试验，特别是在那些已知受到人为气候变化强烈影响的系统中。
