Dodman David, Adelekan Ibidun, Brown Donald, Leck Hayley, Manda Mtafu, Mberu Blessing, Pelling Mark, Rusca Maria, Satterthwaite David, Taylor Faith
International Institute for Environment and Development London UK.
University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria.
Area (Oxf). 2019 Sep;51(3):586-594. doi: 10.1111/area.12510. Epub 2018 Dec 9.
Many African towns and cities face a range of hazards, which can best be described as representing a "spectrum of risk" of events that can cause death, illness or injury, and impoverishment. Yet despite the growing numbers of people living in African urban centres, the extent and relative severity of these different risks is poorly understood. This paper provides a rationale for using a spectrum of methods to address this spectrum of risk, and demonstrates the utility of mixed-methods approaches in planning for resilience. It describes activities undertaken in a wide-ranging multi-country programme of research, which use multiple approaches to gather empirical data on risk, in order to build a stronger evidence base and provide a more solid base for planning and investment. It concludes that methods need to be chosen in regard to social, political economic, biophysical and hydrogeological context, while also recognising the different levels of complexity and institutional capacity in different urban centres. The paper concludes that as well as the importance of taking individual contexts into account, there are underlying methodological principles - based on multidisciplinary expertise and multi-faceted and collaborative research endeavours - that can inform a range of related approaches to understanding urban risk in sub-Saharan Africa and break the cycle of risk accumulation.
许多非洲城镇面临一系列危害，这些危害最好被描述为代表了可能导致死亡、疾病、伤害和贫困的各种“风险谱”事件。然而，尽管生活在非洲城市中心的人口不断增加，但人们对这些不同风险的程度和相对严重性却知之甚少。本文阐述了使用一系列方法来应对这一风险谱的理由，并展示了混合方法在规划恢复力方面的效用。它描述了在一个广泛的多国研究项目中开展的活动，该项目采用多种方法收集有关风险的实证数据，以建立更强大的证据基础，并为规划和投资提供更坚实的基础。文章得出结论，需要根据社会、政治经济、生物物理和水文地质背景来选择方法，同时也要认识到不同城市中心的复杂程度和机构能力各不相同。本文的结论是，除了考虑个别情况的重要性之外，还有一些基于多学科专业知识以及多方面合作研究努力的基本方法原则，这些原则可以为一系列相关方法提供指导，以了解撒哈拉以南非洲的城市风险，并打破风险积累的循环。
