State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment , Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084 , China.
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies , Yale University , New Haven , Connecticut 06511 , United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2019 Dec 3;53(23):13812-13821. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b03875. Epub 2019 Nov 12.
A comprehensive study is carried out to determine (1) the annual historical demand and supply, (2) the annual prospective demand, and (3) the carrying capacity and future sustainability of copper resources in China. The results of the first analysis show that both the demand and the supply have substantially increased since 2000 after remaining relatively minute for the period from 1950 to 2000. By 2015, the per capita total and domestic demands had reached 7.6 and 5.4 kg, respectively. The annual demand prospects suggest that the copper demand will peak in 2030 and either stabilize or marginally drop thereafter. This was found to be the case for all population variants and demand growth rates that were considered herein, with the exception of the "stable scenario". Under the considered scenarios, the domestic demand in the year 2050 is predicted to fall by 6.7-15 million metric tons (Mt), while the total demand will likely fall by 9.4-21.2 Mt. The projected drastic increase in the cumulative primary demand suggests that China should pursue more industrially sustainable options. If the current trends continue, demand will likely surpass even the projected reserve base of 2050 sometime from 2025 to 2035 unless necessary actions to change the course are initiated as soon as possible. Chinese efforts to promote recycling in recent decades have been admirable but are not sufficient to meet the primary demand, thus leaving a large proportion of the demand to be met using imports. Thus, to reduce the primary copper imports, it is desirable to increase recycling rates to 60-70%. The shortcomings of the domestic recycling industry include poor end-of-life collection and an elastic policy framework. These issues merit attention in the short term to increase the long-term sustainability of copper resources in China.
进行了一项全面研究，以确定（1）中国铜资源的年度历史需求和供应，（2）年度预期需求，以及（3）铜资源的承载能力和未来可持续性。第一项分析的结果表明，自 2000 年以来，需求和供应都有了实质性的增长，而在 1950 年至 2000 年期间，两者都相对较小。到 2015 年，人均总量和国内需求分别达到 7.6 公斤和 5.4 公斤。年度需求前景表明，铜需求将在 2030 年达到峰值，此后要么稳定，要么略有下降。考虑到本文中考虑的所有人口变量和需求增长率，都是如此，除了“稳定情景”。在考虑的情景下，预计 2050 年国内需求将下降 670 万至 1500 万吨，而总需求可能下降 940 万至 2120 万吨。预计初级需求的累计大幅增长表明，中国应寻求更具工业可持续性的选择。如果目前的趋势持续下去，需求可能会在 2025 年至 2035 年期间的某个时间超过甚至预计的 2050 年储备基础，除非尽快采取必要措施改变这一趋势。中国近几十年来在促进回收方面的努力令人钦佩，但不足以满足初级需求，因此，很大一部分需求仍需依靠进口来满足。因此，为了减少初级铜进口，理想情况下应将回收利用率提高到 60-70%。国内回收行业的缺点包括报废收集不良和弹性政策框架。这些问题值得在短期内关注，以提高中国铜资源的长期可持续性。
