Li Jinhui, Eheliyagoda Disna, Geng Yong, Yang Zhiming, Zeng Xianlai
State Key Laboratory of Iron and Steel Industry Environmental Protection, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China.
Fundam Res. 2022 Oct 15;5(2):740-747. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2022.09.022. eCollection 2025 Mar.
Copper is an economic and strategic metal consumed and produced in many nations. Previous studies of future copper demand and supply have revealed some deficiencies at the macro level. To minimize these gaps, we present here a comprehensive recycling scenario to examine the future copper sustainability for more than 50 countries by 2100. End-of-life metal recycling optimization can be a transparent, flexible and broadly applicable solution, coupled with circular economy strategies to reduce the supply of such metals and related environmental risks. Substantial recycling (estimated at 40 to 65 percent) would be more conducive to reducing primary demand in regions with large populations and rapid industrial growth. Although Latin America and Caribbean, Africa and Oceania can be identified as regions with low demand and recycling intentions by 2100, carbon emissions in Latin America will peak at 70 million tons by 2050 owing to concentrated primary copper production. In order to fully realize recycling targets, more efforts should be made to formulate policies and regulations for the copper industry, systematically scrap collection, and innovate effective technologies.
铜是一种在许多国家被消费和生产的具有经济和战略意义的金属。以往对未来铜需求和供应的研究在宏观层面上揭示了一些不足之处。为了尽量减少这些差距，我们在此提出一个全面的回收方案，以研究到2100年50多个国家未来的铜可持续性。报废金属回收优化可以是一个透明、灵活且广泛适用的解决方案，再结合循环经济战略来减少此类金属的供应及相关环境风险。大量回收（估计为40%至65%）将更有利于减少人口众多且工业快速增长地区的原生需求。尽管到2100年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区、非洲和大洋洲可被视为需求和回收意愿较低的地区，但由于原生铜生产集中，拉丁美洲的碳排放量到2050年将达到7000万吨的峰值。为了全面实现回收目标，应更加努力地制定铜行业的政策法规、进行系统的废料收集，并创新有效的技术。
