New Zealand Work Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.
Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, England, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2019 Nov 13;14(11):e0224290. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224290. eCollection 2019.
There is considerable debate on whether the employment and earnings prospects are better for those on low pay or for the unemployed. Low-pay work tends to be undertaken more locally but no empirical analysis has focused on how local opportunities alter prospects. Using Understanding Society data for England matched with local unemployment rates, we estimate dynamic random effects panel models, which show robust evidence that the future unemployment risk is lower for those who are currently on low pay compared to those who are currently unemployed. The low-paid also have a higher chance than the unemployed of becoming higher-paid. These findings are most marked in neighbourhoods with high unemployment.
关于低薪人群和失业人群，哪类人群的就业和收入前景更好，这存在较大争议。低薪工作往往在当地更容易找到，但没有实证分析关注当地机会如何改变前景。本文利用英格兰的“理解社会”调查数据匹配当地失业率，估计了动态随机效应面板模型，结果有力地表明，与当前失业人群相比，当前低薪人群未来失业风险更低。与失业人群相比，低薪人群获得更高薪酬的机会也更高。在失业率较高的社区，这些发现更为显著。
