College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography-Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266100, China.
Sci Rep. 2019 Dec 12;9(1):19016. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-55483-2.
Ensuring stable crop yield increases to meet rising demand is an important issue globally, particularly when accounting for climate change. In this study, using observations, reanalysis datasets, and the Hodrick and Prescott filter method, we find that changes in a distinct pattern of Indian Ocean-Pacific five-pole (IPFP) SST (sea surface temperature) are strongly linked to the ensuing year's winter wheat climatic yield (the part of yield that fluctuation caused by climatic factors change) in the North China Plain (NCP), which is the main production region of winter wheat in China. Here we define a normalized IPFP index (IPFPI) and demonstrate that the autumn IPFPI (1948-2014) is well correlated with the ensuing year's winter wheat climatic yield (1949-2015), particularly for October (r = 0.69; n = 67; P < 0.001). A composite analysis shows that the October IPFP is correlated with sowing-period and emergence-period climate factors in the NCP. When the October IPFP is in a positive phase, the atmosphere geopotential height fields and water vapor flux are bebefitial to rainfall formation in NCP, and the precipitation and soil moisture are higher in NCP and benefit winter wheat growth, thus increasing the climatic yield. In addition, accumulated rainfall and soil water content might influence winter wheat growth from sowing and emergence (autumn) to the returning green stage (following spring).
确保作物产量稳定增长以满足不断增长的需求是全球面临的一个重要问题，尤其是在考虑到气候变化的情况下。在这项研究中，我们利用观测、再分析数据集和 Hodrick-Prescott 滤波方法发现，印度洋-太平洋五极海表温度（IPFP SST）的显著变化模式与华北平原（NCP）次年冬小麦气候产量（产量中因气候因素变化而波动的部分）密切相关，NCP 是中国冬小麦的主要产区。在这里，我们定义了归一化的 IPFP 指数（IPFPI），并证明秋季 IPFPI（1948-2014 年）与次年的冬小麦气候产量（1949-2015 年）高度相关，尤其是在 10 月（r=0.69;n=67;p<0.001）。综合分析表明，10 月的 IPFP 与 NCP 的播种期和出苗期气候因素有关。当 10 月的 IPFP 处于正相位时，大气位势高度场和水汽通量有利于 NCP 降雨的形成，NCP 的降水和土壤湿度较高，有利于冬小麦的生长，从而提高了气候产量。此外，累积降雨量和土壤含水量可能会影响冬小麦从播种到出苗（秋季）到返青期（次年春季）的生长。
