Wang Donglin, Guo Mengjing, Feng Xuefang, Zhang Yuzhong, Dong Qinge, Li Yi, Gong Xuewen, Ge Jiankun, Wu Feng, Feng Hao
College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China.
Plants (Basel). 2024 Mar 1;13(5):706. doi: 10.3390/plants13050706.
The possible influence of global climate changes on agricultural production is becoming increasingly significant, necessitating greater attention to improving agricultural production in response to temperature rises and precipitation variability. As one of the main winter wheat-producing areas in China, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation, accumulated temperature, and actual yield and climatic yield of winter wheat during the growing period in Shanxi Province were analysed in detail. With the utilisation of daily meteorological data collected from 12 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province in 1964-2018, our study analysed the change in winter wheat yield with climate change using GIS combined with wavelet analysis. The results show the following: (1) Accumulated temperature and precipitation are the two most important limiting factors among the main physical factors that impact yield. Based on the analysis of the ArcGIS geographical detector, the correlation between the actual yield of winter wheat and the precipitation during the growth period was the highest, reaching 0.469, and the meteorological yield and accumulated temperature during this period also reached its peak value of 0.376. (2) The regions with more suitable precipitation and accumulated temperature during the growth period of winter wheat in the study area had relatively high actual winter wheat yields. Overall, the average actual yield of the entire region showed a significant increasing trend over time, with an upward trend of 47.827 kg ha yr. (3) The variation coefficient of winter wheat climatic yield was relatively stable in 2008-2018. In particular, there were many years of continuous reduction in winter wheat yields prior to 2006. Thereafter, the impact of climate change on winter wheat yields became smaller. This study expands our understanding of the complex interactions between climate variables and crop yield but also provides practical recommendations for enhancing agricultural practices in this region.
全球气候变化对农业生产的潜在影响日益显著，因此有必要更加关注提高农业生产，以应对气温上升和降水变化。作为中国主要的冬小麦产区之一，详细分析了山西省冬小麦生长期间降水、积温、实际产量和气候产量的时空分布特征。利用1964 - 2018年山西省12个气象站收集的日气象数据，本研究结合GIS和小波分析，分析了气候变化下冬小麦产量的变化。结果表明：（1）积温和降水是影响产量的主要物理因素中最重要的两个限制因素。基于ArcGIS地理探测器分析，冬小麦实际产量与生长期间降水的相关性最高，达到0.469，此期间气象产量与积温的相关性也达到峰值0.376。（2）研究区域内冬小麦生长期间降水和积温较为适宜的地区，冬小麦实际产量相对较高。总体而言，整个区域的平均实际产量随时间呈显著增加趋势，上升趋势为47.827 kg·ha·yr。（3）2008 - 2018年冬小麦气候产量变异系数相对稳定。特别是在2006年之前，冬小麦产量连续多年下降。此后，气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响变小。本研究不仅拓展了我们对气候变量与作物产量之间复杂相互作用的理解，还为该地区加强农业实践提供了切实可行的建议。
