Institute of Biological Sciences (ICB), Department of General Biology, I3-253, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Antônio Carlos 6627 Avenue, Pampulha Campus, Belo Horizonte, MG, 31270-901, Brazil.
Institute of Geosciences (IGC), Departament of Cartography, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Antônio Carlos 6627 Avenue, Pampulha Campus, Belo Horizonte, MG, 31270-901, Brazil.
Environ Monit Assess. 2019 Dec 13;192(1):39. doi: 10.1007/s10661-019-8016-9.
It is necessary to understand the importance of landscapes that comprise the environment across a broad range of time and space and that each part of these landscapes responds to changes in environmental factors and land use. This study employs a multiscale modeling approach in the Rio Doce State Park (PERD), located in Minas Gerais, Brazil, based on a previous study on land use change in this region over the last 30 years (1985-2015), with an aim of predicting possible scenarios for the next 15 years (2015-2030). The results indicate that the municipalities and buffer zones within the PERD will suffer from increased human disturbance in all four land use types present in the region (Urban, Agriculture, Pasture, and Forestry). Correspondingly, areas of natural environment (Forest and Water) will shrink due to an increase in forest fragmentation, causing the loss of permanent ecological reserves, thereby endangering the biodiversity of these areas. Cooperation between the local community and private companies is therefore necessary to improve regional environmental conservation, encourage advanced sustainable development, and improve the quality of life for residents within each municipality near the State Park.
有必要了解在广泛的时间和空间范围内构成环境的景观的重要性，并且这些景观的每一部分都要对环境因素和土地利用的变化做出响应。本研究以该地区过去 30 年（1985-2015 年）的土地利用变化的先前研究为基础，在巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州的里约多斯州立公园（PERD）采用多尺度建模方法，目的是预测未来 15 年（2015-2030 年）可能出现的情景。结果表明，PERD 内的市镇和缓冲区将在该地区存在的四种土地利用类型（城市、农业、牧场和林业）中遭受更多的人为干扰。相应地，自然环境（森林和水）的面积将因森林破碎化的增加而缩小，导致永久性生态保护区的丧失，从而危及这些地区的生物多样性。因此，有必要在当地社区和私营公司之间进行合作，以改善区域环境的保护，鼓励先进的可持续发展，并提高每个州立公园附近市镇的居民的生活质量。
