Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Tehran, 31587-77871, Iran.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2019 Dec 13;192(1):40. doi: 10.1007/s10661-019-8011-1.
Rapid population growth, rising water demands, inefficient management, and various distributions of water are the major causes of increased pressure on water resources and the consequent increased water-based conflicts especially in arid and semi-arid regions in Iran being a case in point. Iran is the second largest country in the Middle East. The country-wide average annual precipitation is about 250 mm, which is about one third of the world's average. Therefore, Iran is one of the driest countries in the world. The water supply for human activities in Iran's provinces has become an increasingly complex task. One of the conventional methods to supply water to these regions is through inter-basin water transfers, from water-endowed regions to water-scarce regions. For such projects, it is necessary but also difficult and expensive to estimate the total water storage of every province with traditional methods. This study employs the GRACE satellite data for 2002-2016 are used and develops a method to assess the linkage between water scarcity and conflicts in Iran's provinces. In addition, a transferability index is formulated based on population and conveyable water parameters demonstrating the conditions of the provinces in inter-basin water transfer for reaching equitable compromises. This index leads to an evaluation of the possibility of conflicts arising from inter-basin water transfer projects in Iran. This work's results show that the Bushehr region has a significant amount of conveyable water and low population and hence is suitable to be one of the water-exporting provinces in the inter-basin water projects. The results of this work also demonstrate that the western provinces are likely to experience serious depletion of water resources, and conflicts may arise in the western and central basins due to the changes in water quantity exacerbated by the inter-basin transfer projects.
快速的人口增长、不断增长的用水需求、低效的管理以及水资源的各种分布不均，是导致水资源压力增大以及由此导致的水冲突加剧的主要原因，尤其是在伊朗这样的干旱和半干旱地区。伊朗是中东地区第二大国家。全国范围内的年平均降水量约为 250 毫米，约为世界平均水平的三分之一。因此，伊朗是世界上最干旱的国家之一。伊朗各省的人类活动供水已成为一项日益复杂的任务。为这些地区供水的传统方法之一是通过跨流域调水，从水资源丰富的地区调水到水资源匮乏的地区。对于这样的项目，用传统方法来估算每个省的总储水量是必要的，但也是困难和昂贵的。本研究利用 2002 年至 2016 年的 GRACE 卫星数据，开发了一种评估伊朗各省水短缺与冲突之间关系的方法。此外，还根据人口和可输送水量参数制定了一个可转移性指数，以展示各省在跨流域调水方面达成公平妥协的条件。该指数可评估伊朗跨流域调水项目引发冲突的可能性。本研究的结果表明，布什尔地区有大量的可输送水量和较低的人口，因此适合成为跨流域调水项目中的一个供水省份。研究结果还表明，西部省份的水资源可能会严重枯竭，由于跨流域调水项目加剧了水量的变化，西部和中部流域可能会出现水冲突。
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