Towards the comprehensive water quality control in Lake Taihu: Correlating chlorphyll a and water quality parameters with generalized additive model.

In this study, the generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze seasonal monitoring data from Lake Taihu, collected from 2010 to 2014, with the aim to explore the correlation between chlorophyll a (Chla) and other water quality parameters. The selected optimal multivariable GAM could effectively explain the concentration variation of Chla occurring during each season, and the interpretation degree followed the order: summer > autumn > spring > winter. The fitting results indicated that the concentration variation of Chla could reflect that of biochemical oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand in all seasons. In addition, the total phosphorus showed strong ability to explain the concentration change of Chla in spring and summer, as the growth of algae would be affected when the concentration of phosphorus shifted high or low. Nitrogen showed strong ability to explain the variations in Chla concentration in autumn. The conclusions of the optimal multivariable GAM could provide decision basis for the eutrophication control. In other words, the prevention of eutrophication outbreaks could be carried out via the targeted control of key water pollutants. According to these results, the concentration of Chla was higher in northern and western lake during summer and autumn, the management should focus on nutrient input of adjacent rivers.