Wang Ziwen, Yao Lijun, Yu Jing, Chen Yuxiang, Feng Xue, Chen Pimao
South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China.
Key Laboratory of Marine Ranching, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affair, Guangzhou 510300, China.
Biology (Basel). 2025 Apr 14;14(4):419. doi: 10.3390/biology14040419.
The marine ecological carrying capacity (MECC) of marine ranching serves as a crucial indicator for assessing the conservation effect of fishery resources and forms a significant basis for scientific management of coastal fisheries. The environmental impacts on the MECC of marine ranching in the northern South China Sea were analyzed quantitatively by employing Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), which have been successfully applied to the study of the relationship between fishery resources and environmental factors, and factor analysis, using satellite and survey observations. Results showed that 95.40% of the total variation in MECC was explained by these factors. Based on the GAMs, the most important factor was Year (calendar years), with a contribution of 66.20%, followed by Chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) and Water Current, with contributions of 20.60%, 4.40%, 3.60%, and 0.60%, respectively. The findings of this study inspire us to establish a long-term marine ranching resource and environment monitoring platform, and an early warning and forecasting expert decision-making system, providing scientific references for planning and management of coastal marine ranching.
海洋牧场的海洋生态承载力（MECC）是评估渔业资源养护效果的关键指标，也是沿海渔业科学管理的重要依据。利用广义相加模型（GAMs）和因子分析方法，结合卫星观测和调查数据，对南海北部海洋牧场的海洋生态承载力的环境影响进行了定量分析。广义相加模型已成功应用于渔业资源与环境因子关系的研究。结果表明，这些因素解释了海洋生态承载力总变异的95.40%。基于广义相加模型，最重要的因素是年份（历年），贡献率为66.20%，其次是叶绿素a浓度（Chl-a）、海表温度（SST）、溶解无机氮（DIN）和海流，贡献率分别为20.60%、4.40%、3.60%和0.60%。本研究结果促使我们建立长期的海洋牧场资源与环境监测平台以及预警和预测专家决策系统，为沿海海洋牧场的规划和管理提供科学参考。
