Département des sciences cliniques, Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe J2S 2M2, Québec, Canada.
Département des sciences cliniques, Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe J2S 2M2, Québec, Canada.
J Dairy Sci. 2020 Mar;103(3):2567-2577. doi: 10.3168/jds.2019-17601. Epub 2019 Dec 19.
Dairy calves are at risk of being stressed when transported during the first week of life. A new Canadian federal rule will forbid transportation of calves younger than 9 d old to auction market. However, in the absence of reliable information to determine birth date, other indirect methods would be of interest. This study aimed to determine the prediction accuracy of body weight, Brix refractometry, and serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activity for determining if a calf was not fit to be transported (i.e., <9 d old). For this purpose, we used 284 calves with a known birth date from a cross-sectional and a prospective cohort study. A logistic regression model was built based on multivariable analysis as well as a misclassification cost term analysis. Because of the collinearity between GGT activity and Brix value and lower discrimination of Brix value, the GGT activity was retained for the main model. The final logistic regression model contained body weight and log-transformed GGT activity value. The misclassifications of the logistic model was minimized using a model probability threshold ≥0.55 with a sensitivity of 70.4% and a specificity of 77.3%. This probability threshold was relatively robust for various prevalence and false negative to false positive cost ratios. The prediction accuracy of this model was moderate at the individual level, but is helpful in calves with a reasonable suspicion of being less than 9 d old.
在生命的第一周,奶牛犊在运输过程中面临应激的风险。加拿大联邦的一项新规定将禁止运输 9 日龄以下的犊牛到拍卖市场。然而,由于缺乏可靠的信息来确定出生日期,其他间接方法将是有用的。本研究旨在确定体重、Brix 折射仪和血清γ-谷氨酰转移酶(GGT)活性对于确定犊牛是否不适合运输(即<9 日龄)的预测准确性。为此,我们使用了来自横断面和前瞻性队列研究的 284 头具有已知出生日期的犊牛。基于多变量分析和分类错误成本分析建立了逻辑回归模型。由于 GGT 活性和 Brix 值之间存在共线性,并且 Brix 值的区分度较低,因此保留了 GGT 活性用于主要模型。最终的逻辑回归模型包含体重和对数转换的 GGT 活性值。使用模型概率阈值≥0.55 最小化逻辑模型的分类错误,灵敏度为 70.4%,特异性为 77.3%。对于不同的患病率和假阴性到假阳性成本比,该概率阈值相对稳健。该模型在个体水平上的预测准确性为中等,但对于有合理怀疑小于 9 日龄的犊牛有帮助。