Tolan P H, Lorion R P
Department of Psychology, DePaul University, Chicago, Illinois 60614.
Am J Community Psychol. 1988 Aug;16(4):547-61. doi: 10.1007/BF00922770.
A sample of 337 adolescent male students were surveyed for demographic, individual, school, and familial functioning and delinquency status to investigate two questions relevant to prediction of adolescent delinquency proneness. First, three methods of scoring a delinquency self-report measure (frequency, variety, and seriousness) were compared to assess their differential relevance to the prediction of delinquency proneness. Second, a multivariate model was examined to assess its explanatory ability for identification of delinquency proneness. Findings, replicated through a series of regression analyses, demonstrate that age of onset is the best predictor. Other than family functioning, psychosocial indicators add little to the predictive model. Third, a specific factor model was preferable to a "risk count" method. Finally, the advantage of self-reports of delinquent behavior over official records is discussed as is the comparability of self-report scoring procedures. How self-reported delinquency is scored is not as critical as previously thought.
对337名青春期男性学生样本进行了调查,内容涉及人口统计学、个人、学校、家庭功能以及犯罪状况,以研究与预测青少年犯罪倾向相关的两个问题。首先,比较了犯罪自我报告测量的三种计分方法(频率、种类和严重性),以评估它们与犯罪倾向预测的不同相关性。其次,检验了一个多变量模型,以评估其识别犯罪倾向的解释能力。通过一系列回归分析得到的结果表明,犯罪开始年龄是最佳预测指标。除了家庭功能外,心理社会指标对预测模型的贡献不大。第三,特定因素模型比“风险计数”方法更可取。最后,讨论了犯罪行为自我报告相对于官方记录的优势以及自我报告计分程序的可比性。自我报告的犯罪如何计分并不像以前认为的那么关键。