Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.
University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Jan 21;14(1):e0007976. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007976. eCollection 2020 Jan.
Since the turn of the century, the global community has made great progress towards the elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Elimination programs, primarily relying on screening and treatment campaigns, have also created a rich database of HAT epidemiology. Mathematical models calibrated with these data can help to fill remaining gaps in our understanding of HAT transmission dynamics, including key operational research questions such as whether integrating vector control with current intervention strategies is needed to achieve HAT elimination. Here we explore, via an ensemble of models and simulation studies, how including or not disease stage data, or using more updated data sets affect model predictions of future control strategies.
自本世纪初以来，全球社会在消除冈比亚锥虫病（gambiense human African trypanosomiasis，HAT）方面取得了重大进展。消除规划主要依靠筛查和治疗运动，也创建了丰富的 HAT 流行病学数据库。利用这些数据进行校准的数学模型有助于填补我们对 HAT 传播动态理解的剩余空白，包括关键的运营研究问题，例如是否需要将病媒控制与当前干预策略相结合以实现 HAT 消除。在这里，我们通过模型集合和模拟研究来探讨包括或不包括疾病阶段数据，或使用更更新的数据集如何影响对未来控制策略的模型预测。
