Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Nat Commun. 2022 Mar 18;13(1):1448. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29192-w.
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness, gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. While annual new cases are at a historical minimum, the likelihood of achieving the target is unknown. We utilised modelling to study the impacts of four strategies using currently available interventions, including active and passive screening and vector control, on disease burden and transmission across 168 endemic health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Median projected years of elimination of transmission show only 98 health zones are on track despite significant reduction in disease burden under medical-only strategies (64 health zones if > 90% certainty required). Blanket coverage with vector control is impractical, but is predicted to reach the target in all heath zones. Utilising projected disease burden under the uniform medical-only strategy, we provide a priority list of health zones for consideration for supplementary vector control alongside medical interventions.
冈比亚人体非洲锥虫病（昏睡病，gHAT）是一种计划在 2030 年前消除传播的疾病。虽然每年的新发病例处于历史最低水平，但实现目标的可能性尚不清楚。我们利用模型研究了在刚果民主共和国 168 个流行区使用目前可用的干预措施（包括主动和被动筛查以及病媒控制）的四种策略对疾病负担和传播的影响。预计消除传播的中位年数表明，尽管在单纯医疗策略下（如果需要 90%以上的确定性，则为 64 个卫生区）疾病负担显著降低，但只有 98 个卫生区有望实现目标。全面开展病媒控制不切实际，但预计所有卫生区都将达到目标。利用单纯医疗策略下预测的疾病负担，我们提供了一份重点卫生区清单，以供考虑在医疗干预措施之外补充病媒控制。
