Systematic probabilistic risk assessment of pesticide residues in tea leaves.

Multiple pesticide residues are frequently present in tea leaves and while the majority of residues satisfy Taiwan's current health regulations, there are potential health effects from pesticide exposure that are of great concern for tea drinkers. We undertook a systematic probabilistic risk assessment of 59 pesticides in tea leaves from 1629 tea leaf samples obtained by Taiwan's Food and Drug Administration in two monitoring surveys in 2015. Bayesian statistics used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate posterior distributions of pesticide residues in tea leaves, lifetime average daily doses and hazard quotients (HQs) of evaluated pesticides. We classified 95th percentile values of HQs into three categories: 0 < HQ < 0.5, 0.5 ≤ HQ ≤ 1 and 1 < HQ. The 95th percentiles of HQs for triazophos (3.39), carbofuran (2.04) and endosulfan (1.80) exceeded 1 in the adult population; the HQ for 3-OH carbofuran was 0.97 and was less than 0.5 for the remaining 55 pesticides. The health risk posed by pesticide residues for tea drinkers is negligible, if triazophos, carbofuran, endosulfan, and 3-OH carbofuran residues satisfy regulatory standards. However, five legacy pesticides, DDT, methomyl, carbofuran, dicofol and endosulfan, were identified. To reduce uncertainties, this study combined Bayesian statistics with a mode of action approach for systematic risk assessment of co-exposure to multiple pesticide residues in tea leaf samples. Measuring pesticide transfer rates will improve the quality of future risk assessments concerning residues in tea leaves. Appropriate management of pesticides in Taiwanese tea farms and monitoring of pesticide residues in imported tea is warranted to protect Taiwan's tea drinkers.