Finch Brayden, Gilligan Derek G, Halpin Sean A, Valentine Megan E
School of Psychology, Faculty of Science and Information Technology, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Information Technology, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
Psychiatr Psychol Law. 2016 Nov 28;24(3):410-427. doi: 10.1080/13218719.2016.1247640. eCollection 2017.
The prediction and subsequent management of aggression by psychiatric inpatients is a crucial role of the mental health professional. This retrospective cohort study examines the predictive validity of 10 static and dynamic risk-of-violence measures and subscales in 37 forensic and 37 civil inpatients residing in a medium- to-low security psychiatric facility for a period of up to 6 months. Retrospective file records were sourced to conduct an AUC analysis of the ROC curve for short- and medium-term follow-up periods. The hypothesis that dynamic measures would be better predictors than static measures over the short term was supported. Albeit to a lesser extent, dynamic measures were still better predictors than static measures over the medium term. This result was seen in both civil and forensic groups. Three previously untested measures were found to predict aggression within the sample. It is recommended that mental health services employ the use of dynamic measures when making short-term risk-of-violence predictions for civil and/or forensic inpatients.
对精神科住院患者的攻击行为进行预测并随后加以管理，是心理健康专业人员的一项关键职责。这项回顾性队列研究考察了10种静态和动态暴力风险测量方法及分量表在37名法医精神病学患者和37名民事精神病学患者中的预测效度，这些患者居住在一个中低安全级别的精神科设施中，为期长达6个月。通过回顾性档案记录，对短期和中期随访期的ROC曲线进行AUC分析。动态测量方法在短期内比静态测量方法更能预测攻击行为这一假设得到了支持。尽管程度较小，但动态测量方法在中期仍然比静态测量方法更能预测攻击行为。这一结果在民事和法医两组中均可见。研究发现，有三种此前未经测试的测量方法能够在样本中预测攻击行为。建议心理健康服务机构在对民事和/或法医精神病学住院患者进行短期暴力风险预测时采用动态测量方法。
