Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Assessment. 2013 Apr;20(2):230-41. doi: 10.1177/1073191111418298. Epub 2011 Aug 19.
Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.
尽管在过去几十年中，暴力风险评估知识和实践已经取得了进步，但在实践中，临床医生仍难以决定应使用哪些措施来持续评估和决定个体的暴力风险，尤其是在短期到中期内。在这种情况下，本研究旨在比较动态风险评估措施与静态风险评估措施在法医精神病住院环境中的短期（最多 1 个月）和中期（最多 6 个月）对暴力的预测准确性。结果表明，在预测住院攻击方面，动态措施通常比静态措施更准确。这些发现强调了使用对重要临床风险状态变量敏感的风险评估措施的必要性，以提高法医住院环境中对攻击的短期到中期预测。这些知识可以帮助制定更准确和有效的风险评估程序，包括选择适当的风险评估工具来管理和预防住院治疗期间患有精神疾病的罪犯的暴力行为。
