Akter Sonia, Krupnik Timothy J, Khanam Fahmida
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 469C Bukit Timah Road, Singapore 259772, Singapore.
Social Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute, 4031 Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
Reg Environ Change. 2017;17:2456-2466. doi: 10.1007/s10113-017-1174-9. Epub 2017 Jun 19.
This paper investigates if climate change skepticism, farmers' fatalistic beliefs, and insurance plan design influence interest in crop weather insurance. While studies of the influence of fatalism on disaster preparedness are common, the ways in which fatalism influences climate change skepticism, and in turn affects farmers' interest in crop insurance, have not been previously investigated. An additional objective was to understand farmers' preferences for index versus standard insurance options, the former entailing damage compensation based on post-hazard assessment, the latter tying damage compensation to a set of weather parameter thresholds. A discrete choice experiment was conducted with maize farmers on a climate-risk prone island in coastal Bangladesh. Most farmers were insurance averse. Those who chose insurance were however significantly more likely to select standard as opposed to index-based insurance. Insurance demand was significantly and positively correlated with farmers' concern about the adverse livelihood impacts of climate change. Farmers who exhibited fatalistic views regarding the consequences of climate change were significantly less likely to opt for insurance of either kind. These findings imply that the prospect for farmers' investment in insurance is conditioned by their understanding of climate change risks and the utility of adaptation, in addition to insurance scheme design.
本文研究气候变化怀疑论、农民的宿命论信念以及保险计划设计是否会影响对农作物气象保险的兴趣。虽然关于宿命论对灾害准备影响的研究很常见，但宿命论影响气候变化怀疑论进而影响农民对农作物保险兴趣的方式此前尚未得到研究。另一个目标是了解农民对指数保险与标准保险选项的偏好，前者基于灾后评估进行损害赔偿，后者将损害赔偿与一组天气参数阈值挂钩。在孟加拉国沿海一个易受气候风险影响的岛屿上，对玉米种植农户进行了一项离散选择实验。大多数农民厌恶保险。然而，那些选择保险的人选择标准保险而非指数保险的可能性显著更高。保险需求与农民对气候变化对生计的不利影响的担忧显著正相关。对气候变化后果持宿命论观点的农民选择任何一种保险的可能性都显著更低。这些发现表明，除了保险计划设计外，农民投资保险的前景还取决于他们对气候变化风险的理解以及适应的效用。
