Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Department of Economics, Preston University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Aug;27(24):30767-30777. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09368-x. Epub 2020 May 30.
Assessing the current farm-level efforts of climate change adaptation is essential to distinguish their usefulness and implying policy level advance measures for future. The present study investigated cotton farmers' climate change adaptation and its impact on increasing cotton productivity and net cotton income in Punjab province of Pakistan. A pretested and well-structured questionnaire was used for data collection of 480 cotton farmers from three major cotton-producing divisions of cotton-wheat zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Logistic regression analysis approach was used in this study to find out the factors of adaptation and propensity score matching method employed to identify connecting adaptation impact on cotton productivity and cotton income. Empirical estimates of this study indicated as owing to some external and internal constraint farmers were limited focused on adaptation while conscious about adverse effects of climate change. Usage of required and recommended types of fertilizer, variation in planting dates, and changing varieties of crop were main adaptation strategies implemented by cotton farmers. Cotton farmers' adaptation decision was significantly influenced by some major factors as weather forecasting, market information, easy access to agricultural extension services, farming experience, and education of cotton farmer. Farm-level increase in cotton productivity and net cotton crop income was direct while overall increases in national output and improving rural area farmer well-being were indirect and significant outcomes of implementing climate change adaptation of cotton farmers. Cotton farmers were using various combinations of adaptation strategies and achieving more benefits regarding their crop productivity and net returns. Findings of the study suggest need for larger investment in farm-level extension services, farmers' schooling, and develop climate change institutional setup for enhancing farmers' adaptation capability to increasing cotton productivity, improving well-being of farming community, and securing agriculture from future climatic uncertainties. Future policies must deal with farm-level limitations of advanced adaptation measures like making available information and sustaining sponsoring soil conservation practices, launching climate smart varieties and advanced adaptation measures based on various agro-ecological zones.
评估当前农场层面适应气候变化的努力对于区分其有用性以及为未来提出政策层面的推进措施至关重要。本研究调查了巴基斯坦旁遮普省棉农的气候变化适应情况及其对提高棉花生产力和净棉花收入的影响。本研究采用预测试和结构良好的问卷，从巴基斯坦棉花-小麦带的三个主要棉花生产区收集了 480 名棉农的数据。本研究采用逻辑回归分析方法，找出适应的因素，并采用倾向得分匹配方法，确定适应对棉花生产力和棉花收入的影响。本研究的实证估计表明，由于一些外部和内部限制，农民在适应方面的关注有限，而对气候变化的不利影响则有一定的意识。棉农实施的主要适应策略包括使用所需和推荐类型的肥料、改变种植日期和作物品种。棉农的适应决策受到一些主要因素的显著影响，如天气预报、市场信息、方便获得农业推广服务、耕作经验和棉农的教育程度。棉花种植户的农场层面棉花生产力和净棉花作物收入的增加是直接的，而全国产出的整体增加和改善农村地区农民福祉是间接的，也是棉花种植户实施气候变化适应的显著结果。棉农正在使用各种适应策略的组合，在提高作物生产力和净收益方面获得了更多的收益。研究结果表明，需要在农场层面的推广服务、农民教育以及建立气候变化机构方面进行更大的投资，以提高农民的适应能力，提高农民的生产力、改善农民社区的福祉，并保护农业免受未来气候的不确定性影响。未来的政策必须解决先进适应措施在农场层面的局限性，例如提供信息和维持土壤保持实践的支持，推出适合不同农业生态区的气候智能品种和先进的适应措施。
