Zheng Yayun, Yang Fang, Duan Jinqiao, Sun Xu, Fu Ling, Kurths Jürgen
School of Mathematics and Statistics and Center for Mathematical Science, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616, USA.
Chaos. 2020 Jan;30(1):013132. doi: 10.1063/1.5129003.
An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, and an α-stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under α-stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps with low frequency. Additionally, the climate change for warming 1.5C under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a steplike growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.
单一极端事件可能引发气候的突然转变，而α稳定非高斯 Lévy 噪声被视为产生此类极端事件的一种噪声。与经典高斯噪声相比，对于处于α稳定 Lévy 噪声下的系统，仍缺乏一种关于最可能转变路径的综合方法。我们在此基于非局部福克 - 普朗克方程开发了一个概率框架，以研究在温室效应和 Lévy 波动影响下能量平衡系统的最大似然气候变化。我们发现，由于低频下较大的噪声跳跃，寒冷气候状态的一个时期可能会被急剧转变为温暖气候状态所打断。此外，在增强的温室效应下升温 1.5 摄氏度的气候变化会产生一个阶梯状增长过程。这些结果为 Lévy 过程引发的气候突然转变的潜在机制提供了重要见解。
