Colle Brian A, Booth James F, Chang Edmund K M
1School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000 USA.
2Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, City University of New York (CUNY), City College, USA.
Curr Clim Change Rep. 2015;1(3):125-143. doi: 10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7. Epub 2015 Jul 1.
This paper reviews the historical and potential future trends of extratropical cyclones (ECs) along the United States (US) East Coast and western Atlantic, as well as potential changes in coastal flooding, heavy precipitation, and damaging winds. Most models project a steady decrease in the number of ECs for the US East Coast and western Atlantic region by the middle to later twenty-first century, while there is an increase in more intense (<980 hPa) cyclones and heavy precipitation; however, there is also been large interdecadal and interannual variability. Potential biases may exist in the models because of difficulty capturing: (a) the Atlantic storm track sensitivity to the Gulf Stream SST gradient, (b) latent heating within these storms, and (c) dynamical interactions at jet level. More work is needed to determine future changes in hybrid storms (e.g., Sandy 2012) and diagnostics to better understand the future cyclone changes in the models.
本文回顾了美国东海岸和西大西洋温带气旋（ECs）的历史及未来潜在趋势，以及沿海洪水、强降水和破坏性大风的潜在变化。大多数模型预测，到21世纪中后期，美国东海岸和西大西洋地区的温带气旋数量将稳步减少，而更强（<980百帕）的气旋和强降水会增加；然而，年代际和年际变化也很大。由于难以捕捉以下因素，模型中可能存在潜在偏差：（a）大西洋风暴路径对湾流海温梯度的敏感性，（b）这些风暴中的潜热加热，以及（c）急流层的动力相互作用。需要开展更多工作来确定混合风暴（如2012年的桑迪）的未来变化，并进行诊断，以更好地了解模型中未来气旋的变化。
