Hall Timothy, Booth James F
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY.
City College of the City University of New York.
J Clim. 2017 Jul;30(14):5329-5343. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0711.1. Epub 2017 Jun 19.
We develop, evaluate, and apply "SynthETC," a statistical-stochastic model of winter extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) over eastern North America. SynthETC simulates the life cycle of ETCs from formation to termination, and it can be used to estimate the probability of extreme ETC events beyond the historical record. Two modes of climate variability are used as independent covariates: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Niño3.4 and the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We use SynthETC to estimate the annual occurrence rate over sites in eastern North America of intense ETC passage in different ENSO and NAO states. Positive NAO is associated with increased rates over the North Atlantic, while negative NAO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic and increased rates over northern Quebec. Positive ENSO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic, Ontario, and the Canadian Maritime, while negative ENSO is associated with increased rates over those regions, as well as the Great Lakes region.
我们开发、评估并应用了“SynthETC”，这是一个关于北美东部冬季温带气旋（ETC）的统计 - 随机模型。SynthETC模拟了温带气旋从形成到终止的生命周期，并且可用于估计超出历史记录的极端温带气旋事件的概率。两种气候变率模式被用作独立协变量：厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）的尼诺3.4指数以及月度北大西洋涛动（NAO）。我们使用SynthETC来估计在不同ENSO和NAO状态下，北美东部各站点强烈温带气旋过境的年发生率。正NAO与北大西洋地区发生率增加相关，而负NAO与北大西洋地区发生率降低以及魁北克北部地区发生率增加相关。正ENSO与北大西洋、安大略省和加拿大海洋省份的发生率降低相关，而负ENSO与这些地区以及五大湖地区的发生率增加相关。
