Maskell Peter D, Jackson Graham
School of Applied Science, Abertay University, Dundee. Scotland, UK.
School of Applied Science, Abertay University, Dundee. Scotland, UK; Advance Forensic Science, St. Andrews, Scotland, UK.
Forensic Sci Int. 2020 Mar;308:110174. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2020.110174. Epub 2020 Jan 29.
In the investigation of a fatal air crash, it is important to determine if the pilot, at the time of death, was contravening the regulations in relation to 1) the permitted concentration of ethanol (alcohol) in the blood and 2) whether the pilot had consumed alcohol within a specified period before flying. It is also important to assess whether any alcohol detected in the toxicological samples was present either because of consumption or because of post-mortem alcohol formation. We have developed a Bayesian Network that models the relationships between analytical results, circumstantial evidence and the concentration of alcohol at the time of death in cases of air crash. The model provides a rational, coherent approach to forensic interpretation, moving interpretation from a largely subjective, generalist approach to a more objective, case-specific methodology utilising available relevant data and accommodating the inevitable uncertainties within a case.
在对一起致命空难的调查中，确定飞行员在死亡时是否违反了以下两项规定非常重要：1）血液中乙醇（酒精）的允许浓度；2）飞行员在飞行前特定时间段内是否饮酒。评估毒理学样本中检测到的任何酒精是因饮酒所致还是死后酒精形成也很重要。我们开发了一个贝叶斯网络，用于模拟空难案件中分析结果、间接证据与死亡时酒精浓度之间的关系。该模型为法医鉴定提供了一种合理、连贯的方法，将鉴定从主要主观、通用的方法转变为更客观、针对具体案件的方法，利用可用的相关数据并适应案件中不可避免的不确定性。
