Department of Surgery, Cancer Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Ann Surg Oncol. 2020 Jul;27(7):2516-2524. doi: 10.1245/s10434-020-08235-w. Epub 2020 Feb 12.
Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed.
This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005-2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0-5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A prediction model was constructed.
Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17-18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics.
This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.
条件生存是指已经存活过预先设定时间段后的生存概率。在随访期间，这可能具有信息性，特别是在调整了肿瘤特征后。目前缺乏针对接受胰腺切除术的患者的此类预测模型，因此评估了条件生存，并开发了预测胰腺导管腺癌患者在接受胰腺切除术后预定时间段内 5 年生存的列线图。
本基于人群的研究纳入了荷兰癌症登记处（2005-2016 年）中接受胰腺导管腺癌切除术的患者。使用 Kaplan-Meier 方法计算中位条件生存，并计算在已经接受切除术后 0-5 年内生存的患者中存活至 8 年的概率。构建了预测模型。
总体而言，共纳入 3082 例患者，中位年龄为 67 岁。中位总生存时间为 18 个月（95%置信区间为 17-18 个月），5 年生存率为 15%。1 年条件生存率（即下一年存活的概率）分别从术后 1、3 和 5 年的 55%增加到 74%和 86%，而中位总生存时间分别从术后 1、3 和 5 年的 15 个月增加到 40 个月和 64 个月。预测模型表明，根据患者和肿瘤特征，术后 1 年达到 5 年生存率的概率在 1%至 58%之间变化。
本基于人群的研究表明，在接受胰腺切除术的患者中，1 年条件生存分别为术后 1 年的 55%和术后 3 年的 74%。预测模型可通过 www.pancreascalculator.com 获取，以告知患者和护理人员。
