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2003-2017 年秘鲁牛狂犬病病例的时空描述。

Spatio-temporal description of bovine rabies cases in Peru, 2003-2017.

机构信息

Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020 Jul;67(4):1688-1696. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13512. Epub 2020 Feb 25.

Abstract

Vampire bats became the main reservoir of rabies in Latin America, where the disease remains one of the most important viral zoonoses affecting humans and livestock. In Peru, the most affected livestock are cattle. The official data of 1,729 cases of bovine rabies were evaluated between 2003 and 2017 through a descriptive analysis, decomposition of the time-series and spatio-temporal analyses. Although the cases did not present a defined seasonality, the trend seemed to increase for several years. The bovine rabies cases are more frequent in the inter-Andean valleys than in other regions of the Amazon plains. The highest case density was observed in the regions of Ayacucho, Cuzco and Apurímac, all located in the Andes. It is necessary to review the current national program for the prevention and control of rabies in livestock, incorporating concepts of the ecology of vampire bats, as well as the prediction of the infection waves geographic and temporal spread. These approaches could improve the efficiency of other current prevention measures that have not shown the expected control effects, such as indiscriminate culling of vampire bats.

摘要

吸血蝙蝠成为拉丁美洲狂犬病的主要宿主,该疾病仍然是影响人类和牲畜的最重要的病毒性人畜共患病之一。在秘鲁,受影响最严重的牲畜是牛。通过描述性分析、时间序列分解和时空分析,评估了 2003 年至 2017 年期间官方记录的 1729 例牛狂犬病病例。尽管这些病例没有呈现出明确的季节性,但这一趋势似乎在几年内有所增加。在安第斯山谷地区,牛狂犬病病例比亚马逊平原的其他地区更为常见。在阿亚库乔、库斯科和阿普里马克地区观察到最高的病例密度,这些地区都位于安第斯山脉。有必要审查当前针对牲畜的狂犬病预防和控制国家计划,将吸血蝙蝠生态学的概念以及感染波的地理和时间传播预测纳入其中。这些方法可以提高其他当前预防措施的效率,这些措施并未显示出预期的控制效果,例如对吸血蝙蝠的无差别扑杀。

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