Kádár Viktória, Pál Gergő, Kun Ferenc
Department of Theoretical Physics, Doctoral School of Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Debrecen, P.O.Box: 400, H-4002, Debrecen, Hungary.
Institute of Nuclear Research (Atomki), P.O.Box: 51, H-4001 Debrecen, Hungary.
Sci Rep. 2020 Feb 13;10(1):2508. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-59333-4.
Forecasting the imminent catastrophic failure has a high importance for a large variety of systems from the collapse of engineering constructions, through the emergence of landslides and earthquakes, to volcanic eruptions. Failure forecast methods predict the lifetime of the system based on the time-to-failure power law of observables describing the final acceleration towards failure. We show that the statistics of records of the event series of breaking bursts, accompanying the failure process, provides a powerful tool to detect the onset of acceleration, as an early warning of the impending catastrophe. We focus on the fracture of heterogeneous materials using a fiber bundle model, which exhibits transitions between perfectly brittle, quasi-brittle, and ductile behaviors as the amount of disorder is increased. Analyzing the lifetime of record size bursts, we demonstrate that the acceleration starts at a characteristic record rank, below which record breaking slows down due to the dominance of disorder in fracturing, while above it stress redistribution gives rise to an enhanced triggering of bursts and acceleration of the dynamics. The emergence of this signal depends on the degree of disorder making both highly brittle fracture of low disorder materials, and ductile fracture of strongly disordered ones, unpredictable.
对从工程建筑倒塌、山体滑坡和地震的出现到火山爆发等各种各样的系统而言，预测即将发生的灾难性故障至关重要。故障预测方法基于描述向故障的最终加速的可观测值的失效时间幂律来预测系统的寿命。我们表明，伴随故障过程的破裂突发事件系列记录的统计数据，为检测加速的开始提供了一个强大的工具，作为即将发生灾难的早期预警。我们使用纤维束模型专注于非均质材料的断裂，随着无序度的增加，该模型呈现出从完全脆性、准脆性到延性的行为转变。通过分析记录大小突发事件的寿命，我们证明加速始于一个特征记录秩，在该秩以下，由于断裂中无序的主导，破纪录速度减慢，而在该秩以上，应力重新分布导致突发事件的触发增强和动力学加速。这个信号的出现取决于无序程度，使得低无序材料的高度脆性断裂和强无序材料的延性断裂都不可预测。
