Epitopes as characterized by antibody-verified eplet mismatches determine risk of kidney transplant loss.

To optimize strategies that mitigate the risk of graft loss associated with HLA incompatibility, we evaluated whether sequence defined HLA targets (eplets) that result in donor-specific antibodies are associated with transplant outcomes. To define this, we fit multivariable Cox proportional hazard models in a cohort of 118 382 United States first kidney transplant recipients to assess risk of death-censored graft failure by increments of ten antibody-verified eplet mismatches. To verify robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analysis in this United States cohort and assessed the role of antibody-verified eplet mismatches as autonomous predictors of transplant glomerulopathy in an independent Canadian cohort. Antibody-verified eplet mismatches were found to be independent predictors of death-censored graft failure with hazard ratios of 1.231 [95% confidence interval 1.195, 1. 268], 1.268 [1.231, 1.305] and 1.411 [1.331, 1.495] for Class I (HLA-A, B, and C), -DRB1 and -DQB1 loci, respectively. To address linkage disequilibrium between HLA-DRB1 and -DQB1, we fit models in a subcohort without HLA-DQB1 eplet mismatches and found hazard ratios for death-censored graft failure of 1.384 [1.293, 1.480] for each additional antibody-verified HLA-DRB1 eplet mismatch. In a subcohort without HLA-DRB1 mismatches, the hazard ratio was 1.384 [1.072, 1.791] for each additional HLA-DQB1 mismatch. In the Canadian cohort, antibody-verified eplet mismatches were independent predictors of transplant glomerulopathy with hazard ratios of 5.511 [1.442, 21.080] for HLA-DRB1 and 3.640 [1.574, 8.416] for -DRB1/3/4/5. Thus, donor-recipient matching for specific HLA eplets appears to be a feasible and clinically justifiable strategy to mitigate risk of graft loss.