Temporal trends in loss of life expectancy after a cancer diagnosis among the Australian population.

BACKGROUND

Loss of life expectancy (LOLE) provides valuable insights into the impact of cancer. We evaluated the temporal trends in LOLE for Australian cancer patients and the gain in life years for recently diagnosed patients due to survival improvements.

METHODS

Analysis was conducted using an Australian population-based cohort (n = 1,865,154) aged 50-89 years, who were primarily diagnosed with one of 19 leading cancers between 1982-2015. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate LOLE and the proportion of life lost (POLL) by year, age group, sex, and, for New South Wales only, spread of disease. The total years of LOLE and gain in life years due to survival improvements were estimated for those diagnosed in 2014.

RESULTS

For 19 cancers combined, LOLE and POLL were significantly lower for more recent diagnoses. Cancer-specific temporal trends were consistent by age, sex, and spread of disease (where relevant) although the magnitude varied. Prostate, kidney, or non-Hodgkin lymphoma experienced the largest decreases in POLL over time. For the 2014 diagnoses, an estimation of 403,094 life years lost will be caused by the 19 cancers. With the increase in cancer survival over time, the 2014 cohort will gain an extra 432,588 life years (52 %) compared to that experienced by the 1982 cohort.

CONCLUSION

While reduced impact of a cancer diagnosis on LOLE over time is encouraging, the growing number of cancer survivors in Australia is likely to pose complex challenges for cancer patients, their care givers, and health-care systems.