Predicting 2-year weight loss through temporally specific earlier losses, relevant behaviors, and their psychological correlates: Implications for behavioral treatment architectures.

Maintaining loss of weight beyond an initial 6-9 months remains problematic, with research indicating little recent progress. A poor understanding of how and when prior weight loss, behavioral changes, and psychosocial predictors are associated with long-term weight changes persists. To better-inform behavioral treatments for long-term success with weight loss, women with obesity (N = 86; M  = 48.6 years) volunteered for research incorporating community-based weight-management treatments. They were assessed at months 6, 12, and 24 on theory-based psychosocial and behavioral factors, and over 24 months on weight. Considering the included times and temporal ranges, it was found that change in weight from month 6-24 was the strongest predictor of 24-month weight change, and physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake at month 24 best predicted that change in weight. Self-regulation, self-efficacy, and mood at month 24 best predicted both physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake at month 24, with body satisfaction also a significant predictor of physical activity. From these data, mediation analyses found that the predictions of long-term weight loss by scores of self-regulation, self-efficacy, body satisfaction, and mood at month 24 were significantly mediated by fruit/vegetable intake and physical activity in separate equations. Findings indicated both psychosocial and behavioral targets, and timing for those targets, most indicative of long-term success with weight loss.