Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales (ICAR), Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, El Cerrillo Piedras Blancas, Toluca de Lerdo, Estado de México, México.
Museo de Zoología "Alfonso L. Herrera", Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México.
PLoS One. 2020 Feb 18;15(2):e0229178. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229178. eCollection 2020.
Geographical distribution of forest species is closely regulated by environmental conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation. Climate change predicted by general circulation models is expected to modify the distribution of many species' distribution, especially those adapted to extreme environmental conditions, leading to large-scale migrations or local extinctions. The aim of this research was to determine the potential impact of climatic change on Pinus hartwegii geographic distribution and the niche breadth of its populations. Ecological niche models were used by generated with four different algorithms based on 19 bioclimatic variables in addition to altitude. Climatic niche breadth was delimited by the dispersion of species occurrence records within the intervals of the bioclimatic variables. We modelled future distribution based on three general circulation models, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES, using two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, for two-time horizons 2050 and 2070. Niche breadth analysis showed narrow ranges of suitability, indicating a strong relationship between the presence of P. hartwegii with the temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter. In addition, the suitability area of P. hartwegii is predicted to be reduced up to 70% by 2070; the populations of the extreme northern and southern latitudes will be reduced in greater proportion than those of central Mexico. This suggest that environmental suitability area of P. hartwegii are reduced by the effect of the increase in environmental temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor extreme populations of this species in the long term in order to establish efficient conservation strategies and well adaptive management facing climate change.
森林物种的地理分布受环境条件的严格控制，尤其是温度和降水。基于通用环流模型预测的气候变化预计将改变许多物种的分布，特别是那些适应极端环境条件的物种，导致大规模的迁移或局部灭绝。本研究旨在确定气候变化对华山松地理分布和种群生态位宽度的潜在影响。我们使用了四个不同的算法生成了生态位模型，这些算法基于 19 个生物气候变量以及海拔。通过在生物气候变量的区间内分散物种出现记录来确定生态位宽度。我们基于三个通用环流模型（MIROC-ESM-CHEM、CCSM4 和 HadGEM2-ES），使用两个代表性浓度途径（RCP）2.6 和 8.5，对 2050 年和 2070 年两个时间点进行了未来分布的建模。生态位宽度分析表明，适宜性范围狭窄，这表明 P. hartwegii 的存在与最暖季度的温度和最冷季度的降水密切相关。此外，到 2070 年，P. hartwegii 的适宜区预计将减少 70%；北部和南部极端纬度的种群将比墨西哥中部的种群减少更多。这表明，环境温度升高的影响导致 P. hartwegii 的环境适宜区减少。因此，有必要长期监测该物种的极端种群，以便制定有效的保护策略和适应气候变化的良好管理。
