Reduction in the potential distribution of bumble bees (Apidae: Bombus) in Mesoamerica under different climate change scenarios: Conservation implications.

Bumble bees are an ecologically and economically important group of pollinating insects worldwide. Global climate change is predicted to affect bumble bee ecology including habitat suitability and geographic distribution. Our study aims to estimate the impact of projected climate change on 18 Mesoamerican bumble bee species. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) using current and future climate emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM). Regardless of the scenario and model applied, our results suggest that all bumble bee species are predicted to undergo a reduction in their potential distribution and habitat suitability due to projected climate change. ENMs based on low emission scenarios predict a distribution loss ranging from 7% to 67% depending on the species for the year 2050. Furthermore, we discovered that the reduction of bumble bee geographic range shape will be more evident at the margins of their distribution. The reduction of suitable habitat is predicted to be accompanied by a 100-500 m upslope change in altitude and 1-581 km shift away from the current geographic centroid of a species' distribution. On average, protected natural areas in Mesoamerica cover ~14% of each species' current potential distribution, and this proportion is predicted to increase to ~23% in the high emission climate change scenarios. Our models predict that climate change will reduce Mesoamerican bumble bee habitat suitability, especially for rare species, by reducing their potential distribution ranges and suitability. The small proportion of current and future potential distribution falling in protected natural areas suggests that such areas will likely have marginal contribution to bumble bee habitat conservation. Our results have the capacity to inform stakeholders in designing effective landscape management for bumble bees, which may include developing restoration plans for montane pine oak forests habitats and native flowering plants.