School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, 1122 NE Boat Street, Seattle, WA 98105, U.S.A.
Conserv Biol. 2011 Feb;25(1):56-63. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01552.x.
Climate change affects individual organisms by altering development, physiology, behavior, and fitness, and populations by altering genetic and phenotypic composition, vital rates, and dynamics. We sought to clarify how selection, phenotypic plasticity, and demography are linked in the context of climate change. On the basis of theory and results of recent empirical studies of plants and animals, we believe the ecological and evolutionary issues relevant to population persistence as climate changes are the rate, type, magnitude, and spatial pattern of climate-induced abiotic and biotic change; generation time and life history of the organism; extent and type of phenotypic plasticity; amount and distribution of adaptive genetic variation across space and time; dispersal potential; and size and connectivity of subpopulations. An understanding of limits to plasticity and evolutionary potential across traits, populations, and species and feedbacks between adaptive and demographic responses is lacking. Integrated knowledge of coupled ecological and evolutionary mechanisms will increase understanding of the resilience and probabilities of persistence of populations and species.
气候变化通过改变发育、生理、行为和适应性来影响个体生物，通过改变遗传和表型组成、生命参数和动态来影响种群。我们试图阐明在气候变化的背景下，选择、表型可塑性和人口统计学是如何联系在一起的。基于对植物和动物的近期实证研究的理论和结果，我们认为与人口持续存在相关的生态和进化问题是气候变化引起的非生物和生物变化的速度、类型、幅度和空间模式；生物体的世代时间和生活史；表型可塑性的程度和类型；跨空间和时间的适应性遗传变异的数量和分布；扩散潜力；以及亚种群的大小和连通性。缺乏对跨特征、种群和物种的可塑性和进化潜力的限制以及适应性和人口统计学反应之间的反馈的理解。对生态和进化机制的综合了解将增加对种群和物种的恢复力和持续存在概率的理解。
