Evaluating uncertainty in Landsat-derived postfire recovery metrics due to terrain, soil, and shrub type variations in southern California.

Temporal trajectories of apparent vegetation abundance based on the multi-decadal Landsat image series provide valuable information on the postfire recovery of chaparral shrublands, which tend to mature within one decade. Signals of change in fractional shrub cover (FSC) extracted from time-sequential Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data can be systematically biased due to spatial variation in shrub type, soil substrate, or illumination differences associated with topography. We evaluate the effects of these variables in Landsat-derived metrics of FSC and postfire recovery, based upon three chaparral sites in southern California which contain shrub community ecotones, complex terrain, and soil variations. Detailed validations of prefire and postfire FSC are based on high spatial resolution ortho-imagery; cross-stratified random sampling is used for variable control. We find that differences in the composition and structure of shrubs (inferred from ortho-imagery) can substantially influence FSC-NDVI relations and impact recovery metrics. Differences in soil type have a moderate effect on the FSC-NDVI relation in one of the study sites, while no substantial effects were observed due to variation of terrain illumination among the study sites. Arithmetic difference recovery metrics - based on NDVI values that were not normalized with unburned control plots - correlate in a moderate but significant manner with a change in FSC ( values range 0.47-0.59 at two sites). Similar regression coefficients resulted from using Landsat visible reflectance data alone. The lowest correlations to FSC resulted from Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and are attributed to the effects of the soil-adjustment factor in sparsely vegetated areas. The Normalized Burn Ratio and Normalized Burn Ratio 2 showed a moderate correlation to FSC. This study confirms the utility of Landsat NDVI data for postfire recovery evaluation and implies a need for stratified analysis of postfire recovery in some chaparral landscapes.